Huachuang Securities·2025-04-28 12:45Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 21.75 CNY, representing a 25% upside from the current price of 17.45 CNY [2][10]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that high-quality development of listed companies is the foundation of market value management, highlighting that 安徽省内唯一的公路类上市公司 (the only highway listed company in Anhui Province) has a leading ROE of 12.8% in 2024, placing it among the top three in the industry [6][8]. - The report discusses the importance of shareholder returns and increasing dividend ratios as effective methods for achieving positive feedback in market value management, noting that since the company increased its dividend payout ratio in 2021, its market value has significantly improved [11][60]. - The support from major shareholders and the company's proactive efforts to strengthen its platform for sustainable development are also highlighted as key factors in enhancing market value potential [11][60]. Financial Performance Summary - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 7,092 million CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 6.9%. However, a decline of 5.0% is expected in 2025, followed by a recovery in 2026 and 2027 with growth rates of 2.1% and 6.5%, respectively [2][23]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1,669 million CNY in 2024, with a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year. The net profit is expected to grow by 11.7% in 2025 and 6.8% in 2026, before declining by 2.5% in 2027 [2][30]. - The company maintains a healthy financial structure with an asset-liability ratio of 39.13% in 2024, which is relatively stable compared to other major companies in the industry [2][34]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company operates approximately 609 kilometers of toll roads and manages a total of 5,411 kilometers, showcasing its significant presence in the Anhui province highway sector [6][16]. - The report notes that the company's toll revenue per kilometer is among the highest in the industry at 629,000 CNY/km, compared to the industry average of 517,000 CNY/km in 2024, indicating a competitive advantage in pricing [8][45]. - The top three revenue-generating toll roads contribute 71.57% of the company's gross profit, demonstrating the importance of these assets to overall financial performance [40][43]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the company will maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 60% from 2025 to 2027, which is expected to yield a dividend yield of 3.9% based on projected net profits [10][11]. - The anticipated acquisitions of 阜周公司 and 泗许公司 in 2025 are expected to further enhance the company's revenue and profit potential, contributing positively to its financial outlook [9][10].