Hotata(603848) 国信证券·2025-04-28 12:51Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][27] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term operational pressure due to weak external demand, with a revenue decline of 7.8% in 2024 and a net profit drop of 24.1% [1][3] - The company aims to improve revenue and profit through a "trade-in" program [1] - Despite the challenges, the company maintains its leading position in the smart home sector and continues to expand its product offerings [3] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.56 billion, down 7.8%, and a net profit of 248 million, down 24.1% [4] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 260 million, down 11.4%, and a net profit of 30 million, down 39.7% [1] - The gross margin for 2024 was 48.0%, a decrease of 3.4 percentage points, with a significant drop in Q4 to 37.6% [3][4] Product and Sales Channel Analysis - The smart home product segment generated 1.33 billion in revenue, down 7.4%, but saw a volume increase of 19.4% to 1.533 million units sold [2] - Online sales remained relatively stable at 990 million, down 2.0%, while offline sales dropped significantly by 20.8% to 530 million [2] - The company is focusing on a multi-channel strategy, strengthening its online presence while addressing challenges in offline sales [2] Profitability and Cost Structure - The company's net profit margin for 2024 was 12.9%, a decrease of 6.1 percentage points, primarily due to intensified price competition and increased expenses [3] - The sales, management, and R&D expense ratios increased, indicating higher operational costs impacting profitability [3] Future Earnings Forecast - The company has revised its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 300 million, 360 million, and 410 million respectively, reflecting growth rates of 21.8%, 18.3%, and 13.7% [3][4] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.5 for 2025, indicating a valuation adjustment in light of market conditions [3][4]