“黄金时代”贵金属系列报告（三）：黄金战术调整与战略机遇：从关税缓和到美债信用溢价的再定价

Report Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the gold industry. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, gold is facing adjustment pressure. The US tariff negotiation is shifting from "stoking emotions" to "gradual resolution," the US economic hard data is not bad, the Fed's rate - cut motivation is limited, and the previous gains in gold trading on the "US Treasury credit crisis" are facing adjustment [3][79]. - This adjustment is only tactical. Strategically, the upward trend of gold is unlikely to end easily, and the relative adjustment range of gold is limited. COMEX gold has a first support level of about $3,250 per ounce and a second support level of about $3,195 per ounce. Shanghai gold has a first target of about 770 yuan per gram and a second target of about 752 yuan per gram [4][80]. - Gold is still in a slanted N - shaped trend. If the US eases tariffs later, it may indicate that the US economy has been affected by tariffs and is heading for a slowdown. The recession - rate cut chain may become new fuel for gold to rise again in the second quarter [4][80]. Summary by Directory 1. 2025 Gold Core Main Logic Review - By April 22, 2025, COMEX gold reached a high of $3,509 per ounce, and Shanghai gold hit 836.3 yuan per gram, up over 32% since the beginning of the year, close to the 38% increase in 2024. On April 23, gold prices reversed [8]. - The main themes of gold price increases in 2025 include "breaking the US exception" and "unexpected tariff games," with multiple driving factors at different times: - In January, market focus on the uncertainty before Trump took office and speculation about his policies led to increased risk - aversion and rising gold prices [10]. - In February and March, the US market showed fragility. There was a "Mini - stagflation" environment, and the negative correlation between gold and the US stock market reached - 0.7. Also, the LBMA - COMEX spread and potential gold liquidity shortages pushed up prices [10]. - On March 13, the tense cross - strait situation drove gold prices above the $3,000 per ounce mark [16]. - In April, the "tariff trial day" and unexpected tariff policies made gold the "safe - haven king," although it was briefly sold off [16]. 2. Upward Drive Weakening, Has the Worst of Tariff Negotiations Passed? - Gold's upward drive "fuel" is weakening. The tariff negotiation process is shifting from "stoking emotions" to "gradual resolution." As of April 23, 2025, Sino - US reciprocal tariffs have entered the "death - rate" range, and subsequent rational negotiations are likely [22][24]. - The US tariff policy has changed from a multi - opposition pattern to a binary - opposition pattern. High tariffs will lead to a lose - lose situation, affecting trade and economic growth in both the US and other countries [24]. 3. Divergence between Hard and Soft Data, Asset Pricing Focuses on "Reality" over "Expectations" - Survey data shows a "stagflation" expectation for the US economy, but real - world economic data is relatively good. Retail sales, industrial production, and employment data are positive, and the VIX index is falling while the financial conditions index is rising [30][31]. - The US economic hard data is not bad, which limits the downward movement of the benchmark interest rate expectation, restricts the Fed's rate - cut motivation, and briefly limits the upside potential of gold [31]. 4. Cracks in Sovereign Safe - Haven Assets? The Explicit Non - Sovereign Safe - Haven Attribute of Gold 4.1 Fundamental Background - High inflation expectations and stagflation concerns limit the hedging effectiveness of US Treasuries. The impact of tariffs on inflation is uncertain, and the inflation outlook is difficult to price [47]. - The current high - tariff situation may lead to inflation data being more visible in July and fully reflected in the fourth - quarter inflation data in the US. The Fed may wait in May and June, and "stagflation" will be more obvious in the third and fourth quarters [58][59]. 4.2 Is the US Treasury Credit Crisis a Narrative or Reality? - There is no evidence of systematic selling of US Treasuries by China and Japan. Japan's selling is short - term market behavior, and China's reduction of US Treasury holdings is a long - term process that does not significantly impact the US Treasury market in the short term [63][64]. - Although the US Treasury has a large amount of debt maturing in the second quarter, the short - term debt roll - over does not cause substantial repayment pressure, and the supply and demand of US Treasuries in the primary market are stable [67][68]. - There is no systematic liquidity risk in the US Treasury market. The recent market turmoil is mainly due to the passive liquidation of positions in the swap market rather than the systematic exit of basis trading [70][72]. 5. What Are the Future Game Points, Signposts, and Risks? - In the short term, gold is facing adjustment pressure, but the strategic upward trend is unlikely to end easily. The adjustment range is limited, and the tariff negotiation process will highly affect the short - term performance of gold [79][80]. - If the US eases tariffs later, it may indicate economic slowdown, and the recession - rate cut chain may drive gold to rise again in the second quarter [4][80].