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宝城期货有色日内企稳回升
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-04-28 13:47

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Copper: Copper prices first declined and then rebounded. The short - term price has recovered to the level of February, with weakened industrial support. The rebound of the US dollar index will suppress copper price increases, and the futures price faces significant pressure at the 78,000 yuan level. Before the May Day holiday, the market may be cautious, and there is a risk of pre - holiday price drops [5]. - Aluminum: Aluminum prices fluctuated downward in the morning and stabilized in the afternoon, with a continuous decline in intraday positions. The industry is in a situation of strong supply and demand. High profits keep the production capacity and operating rate of electrolytic aluminum plants at a high level, and strong downstream production supports the price. The futures price may face strong hedging pressure when it rises to the 20,000 yuan level. Before the May Day holiday, the market may be cautious, and there is a risk of pre - holiday price drops [6]. - Nickel: The main futures price dropped below 124,000 yuan in the morning and then stabilized. Overseas nickel ore supply is tight, and domestic port nickel ore inventories are at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. However, the slow destocking of downstream stainless steel and weak prices drag down the futures price. There is a divergence in domestic and overseas inventories, with domestic inventories decreasing and overseas inventories increasing. The short - term fundamentals are mixed, and the futures price has broken below the 125,000 yuan level, showing a downward trend [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Copper: On April 28, the social inventory of electrolytic copper was 161,000 tons, a decrease of 21,200 tons compared to April 24 and 47,500 tons compared to April 21 [9]. - Aluminum: On April 28, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 649,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons compared to April 24 and 27,000 tons compared to April 21 [10]. - Nickel: On April 28, for the Shanghai market's main reference contract of refined nickel (Ni 2505), the mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was + 2350 yuan/ton with a price of 126,000 yuan/ton; Russian nickel was + 250 yuan/ton with a price of 123,900 yuan/ton; Norwegian nickel was + 2750 yuan/ton with a price of 126,400 yuan/ton; and nickel beans were - 900 yuan/ton with a price of 122,750 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Related Charts - Copper: Multiple charts are provided, including copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][17][20]. - Aluminum: Charts include aluminum basis, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, alumina trend, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory, and alumina inventory [24][26][28]. - Nickel: Charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [35][41][45].