供需矛盾待缓解，钢价承压运行

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In April, steel prices oscillated downward under the dominance of macro - negative factors, despite some improvement in the steel market fundamentals during the peak season. The low inventory of steel has limited positive effects due to differentiation among varieties and regions, and the uncertainty of inventory depletion in the coming off - season. [5] - Steel mills maintained high production levels as their profitability did not deteriorate, leading to a high supply of steel. There is a risk that the pressure from off - balance - sheet steel may transfer to on - balance - sheet steel, increasing supply pressure. [5] - Steel demand improved seasonally but was lackluster during the peak season, with a continued differentiation in strength among varieties. Construction steel demand is expected to remain weak, while plate demand is supported by the domestic manufacturing industry but has potential risks from overseas. [5] - Looking ahead, overseas risks will still affect the steel market, but the impact will weaken. As demand shifts from peak to off - season and external demand has potential risks, steel prices are likely to come under pressure. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills. [6] Summary According to the Directory 1. 4 - Month Steel Prices Declined Weakly - In April, steel prices oscillated downward under the influence of macro - negative factors such as the intensification of the Sino - US trade war. By April 25, the main futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased by 4.50% and 5.18% respectively compared to the end of last month, hitting new lows for the year. Spot prices were relatively resilient, showing a low - level oscillating trend. [12] - In April, the basis of steel strengthened significantly, and the term structure of rebar and hot - rolled coil remained in a contango structure with a narrowing premium for far - month contracts. The strength of varieties switched again, and the price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar decreased. [13] 2. Steel Inventory Depleted with a Decent Decline - By the week of April 25, the total inventory of five major steel products decreased by 11.71% compared to the end of last month, reaching a low level in recent years. Construction steel inventory decreased significantly, while plate inventory depletion was less due to high supply. [22][25] - Steel social inventory decreased by 13.58% compared to the end of last month, while factory inventory decreased by 6.88%. The inventory of rebar continued to deplete, but there were concerns about the inflection point. The inventory of hot - rolled coil continued to deplete, but the decline was narrowing, and the pressure remained. [26][32][40] 3. Steel Supply Remained High and Pressure Needed to be Alleviated - In the peak season, steel mills were actively producing, and steel supply returned to a high level. From January to March, domestic crude steel production increased by 0.60% year - on - year. In April, steel mills increased production again. High - frequency data also showed that steel supply was rising. [48] - As of the week of April 25, the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills reached 84.33% and 91.60% respectively. The production of short - process steel mills was also active. The supply increase was mainly in off - balance - sheet steel. [51] - The production of construction steel mills was active, and rebar production was at a high level. The production of hot - rolled coil decreased slightly due to maintenance but was expected to increase again. [61][65] 4. Steel Demand Improved Seasonally with Differentiated Strength among Varieties 4.1 High - Frequency Demand Indicators Continued to Rise - By the week of April 25, the weekly apparent demand for steel increased by 6.49 tons compared to the end of last month, but was still lower than the same period last year. In April, the total steel demand increased by 4.16% compared to the same period last month but decreased by 3.87% year - on - year. [68] - Construction steel demand improved seasonally but was still weak, while plate demand was supported by the domestic manufacturing industry but faced potential risks from overseas. [69] - Rebar demand improved but with limited increase and was expected to weaken seasonally. Hot - rolled coil demand showed weakening resilience, and the demand expectation was weak. [74][82] 4.2 Steel Exports Reached a High Level, Beware of Hidden Risks Materializing - In March, China's steel exports reached 10.456 million tons, a new monthly high. From January to March, cumulative steel exports increased by 6.3% year - on - year. However, the steel export situation is becoming more severe as Vietnam and South Korea have launched anti - dumping investigations on Chinese steel. [89][90] - The export price difference has increased, strengthening the order - taking ability. Before the anti - dumping rulings, there was a "rush to export" situation. The increase in billet exports compensated for the decline in finished steel exports. Overall, steel export demand was expected to remain at a relatively high level but faced risks. [91][92] 4.3 The Economy Started Well and Policies Remained Steady - In the first quarter of 2025, the domestic economy started well, with GDP growing by 5.4% in real terms and 4.6% in nominal terms year - on - year. Industrial production was strong, and the service industry also showed an upward trend. [95] - Investment improved steadily, with the narrowing of the drag from the real estate sector. In the real estate market, sales improved, and the cash flow of real estate enterprises improved marginally, but the demand for steel in the real estate sector was expected to remain weak. [98][101] - Infrastructure investment accelerated, with the issuance of infrastructure funds speeding up. Policy support was expected to continue to promote infrastructure investment in the second quarter. [108] 5. Conclusion - In April, steel prices declined under the influence of macro - negative factors. Steel inventory depleted, but the positive effect was limited. Steel supply remained high, and demand improved seasonally but was lackluster. [115] - Looking ahead, overseas risks will still affect the steel market, but the impact will weaken. As demand enters the off - season and external demand has potential risks, steel prices are likely to come under pressure, and attention should be paid to the production of steel mills. [118]