国金期货尿素周度报告-20250428

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The urea market recently shows a trend of growth in both supply and demand. Supply is expected to increase as most plants resume production before the holiday, while demand has been delayed by weather but is likely to improve. The market is in a traditional peak season, and enterprise inventories are expected to gradually decline. There may be positive arbitrage opportunities between the September and January contracts. [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Futures Market: The urea futures market declined this week, with the main contract UR2509 dropping 0.9% to close at 1,757 yuan/ton. Trading volume was high, with the main contract accounting for 89.09% of the total 1.321 million lots. Technically, the price oscillated around the 20 - day moving average, and the MACD indicated a sideways pattern. The basis of the UR2509 contract was stable, with the Shandong basis at 55 yuan/ton and the Henan basis at 49 yuan/ton. [3] - Supply: The domestic urea operating rate was 83.61%, down 2.13 percentage points from last week due to some temporary plant shutdowns. It is expected to rise next week. Enterprise profits declined due to delayed demand but may recover as the operating rate increases. [3] - Inventory: Enterprise inventories increased by 158,800 tons to 1.065 million tons, and advance orders decreased by 0.17 days to 5.12 days. Port inventories rose slightly to 117,000 tons. Delayed demand led to the inventory increase, but it is expected to decline as demand recovers. [4] - Demand: The compound fertilizer operating rate dropped 4.18 percentage points to 43.54%, with weak market sentiment and high finished - product inventories. The melamine operating rate increased, and its profit improved due to lower raw material prices. Near the May Day holiday, downstream demand is mainly for immediate needs. The industry is in a peak season, and export policies remain tight. [5] 3.2 Conclusion - The urea market has growth in both supply and demand. Supply will increase as plants resume, and demand, though delayed, is expected to improve. The traditional peak season may help reduce inventories. There may be positive arbitrage opportunities between the September and January contracts. Attention should be paid to the overall commodity market sentiment and macro - economic changes. [6]