碳排放月报：火电同比下滑，CEA弱势运行-20250428

Group 1: Report's Core View - As of April 25, 2025, the closing price of the national carbon market carbon emission allowance (CEA) was 75.76 yuan/ton, down 13.12% from the previous month and 26.02% from the same period last year. The average trading volume of national carbon emission allowances in the past 30 trading days was 232,000 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 113,000 tons [1][13][56]. - As of April 27, 2025, the 5500K quotation at Qinhuangdao Port was 656 yuan/ton, 11 yuan/ton lower than the end of last month and 107 yuan/ton lower than the end of last year. The bearish factors of thermal coal have accumulated, and the price center has continued to decline this year, with a pessimistic market atmosphere [1][17][56]. - In 2024, the cumulative apparent consumption of natural gas was 423.465 billion cubic meters, an increase of 33.43 billion cubic meters compared to last year; the cumulative apparent consumption of fuel oil was 51.9942 million tons, a decrease of 11.0283 million tons compared to last year; the cumulative apparent consumption of coke was 481.0804 million tons, a decrease of 2.9669 million tons compared to last year [1][28][56]. - In March 2025, the total social electricity consumption was 828.2 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%; from January to March, the cumulative growth rate of the total social electricity consumption dropped to 2.5%, compared with 9.8% in the same period last year. In March, the power generation of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 778 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%; from January to March, the power generation was 2269.9 billion kWh, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%. In the first quarter of this year, the total power generation of four clean energy sources was 737.05 billion kWh, accounting for 32.5% of the total power generation, an increase of 4.1 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2][57][58]. Group 2: Industry News - In March 2025, the National Energy Administration issued 174 million green certificates, a year-on-year increase of 9.39 times, including 144 million tradable green certificates, accounting for 82.26%. From January to March 2025, a total of 662 million green certificates were issued, including 456 million tradable green certificates. As of March 2025, a total of 5.617 billion green certificates had been issued nationwide, including 3.835 billion tradable green certificates [7]. - In March 2025, 118 million green certificates were traded nationwide, including 21.87 million green power trading green certificates. From January to March 2025, 200 million green certificates were traded nationwide, including 60.44 million green power trading green certificates. As of March 2025, a total of 753 million green certificates had been traded nationwide, including 298 million green power trading green certificates [8]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the newly installed capacity of wind and photovoltaic power generation in China reached 74.33 million kilowatts, with a cumulative installed capacity of 1.482 billion kilowatts, exceeding the thermal power installed capacity (1.451 billion kilowatts) for the first time. In the first quarter, the total power generation of wind and photovoltaic power reached 536.4 billion kWh, accounting for 22.5% of the total social electricity consumption, an increase of 4.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year [9]. - The National Energy Administration issued the "Implementation Plan for the Special Action of Upgrading the New Generation of Coal-fired Power (2025 - 2027)". The next steps include publicizing the plan, guiding provincial energy authorities to formulate work plans, and tracking the progress and effectiveness of the special action [10][11][12]. Group 3: National Carbon Market Carbon Emission Allowance (CEA) - As of April 25, 2025, the closing price of CEA was 75.76 yuan/ton, down 13.12% from the previous month and 26.02% from the same period last year. In the past 30 trading days, the average trading volume was 232,000 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 113,000 tons [13]. Group 4: Carbon Price Influence Factor Analysis 4.1 Energy Price - As of April 27, 2025, the port quotations of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port decreased compared to the end of last month and last year. The pithead prices of thermal coal in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia also decreased or remained flat compared to the end of last month and last year. The coke prices increased slightly compared to the end of last month but decreased compared to the end of last year. The LNG price index decreased, and the European natural gas spot price decreased [15][17][18]. 4.2 Energy Consumption - In 2024, the apparent consumption of natural gas increased, while the apparent consumption of fuel oil and coke decreased compared to last year [28]. 4.3 Domestic Carbon Emission Structure - China's total carbon emissions exceed 10 billion tons, accounting for about one-third of the world's total. In 2021, the "Electricity, Steam, and Hot Water Production and Supply" industry had the largest carbon emissions, followed by the "Ferrous Metal Smelting and Rolling Processing Industry" and the non-metallic mineral industry. By energy type, coal consumption accounted for 67.2% of total emissions [32][35][40]. 4.4 Total Social Electricity Consumption - In March 2025, the total social electricity consumption was 828.2 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%. From January to March, the cumulative growth rate of total social electricity consumption was 2.5%. The electricity consumption of the first, second, third industries, and urban and rural residents all increased year-on-year [43]. 4.5 Power Generation Structure - In the first quarter of 2025, the power generation of industrial enterprises above the designated size decreased by 0.3% year-on-year. The proportion of thermal power generation decreased by 4.1 percentage points, while the total power generation of four clean energy sources increased by 16.2% year-on-year, accounting for 32.5% of the total power generation, an increase of 4.1 percentage points compared to the same period last year [47][48][58]. Group 5: Conclusion - The CEA price decreased, and the trading volume increased in the carbon market. The thermal coal price continued to decline, and the market atmosphere was pessimistic. The apparent consumption of natural gas increased, while that of fuel oil and coke decreased in 2024. The growth rate of total social electricity consumption slowed down, and the power generation of industrial enterprises above the designated size decreased slightly. The proportion of clean energy power generation increased [56][57][58].