弘亚数控（002833）：公司点评：Q1业绩下滑收窄，毛利率同环比提升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][13]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 2025 performance shows a revenue of 654 million RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 5.29%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 132 million RMB, down 6.59% year-on-year. However, the decline in revenue and profit has narrowed compared to Q4 2024, where revenue decreased by 16.82% and net profit by 44.42% [2][3]. - The company is expected to benefit from national policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, particularly in the furniture machinery sector, which may lead to a recovery in demand and performance [3]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 is reported at 30.93%, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.09 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.30 percentage points, indicating improved profitability despite weak industry demand [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 654 million RMB, down 5.29% year-on-year, and a net profit of 132 million RMB, down 6.59% year-on-year. The gross margin was 30.93%, reflecting a minor improvement [2]. Operational Analysis - The decline in revenue and profit has slowed compared to the previous quarter, with government policies expected to stimulate demand in the furniture machinery sector, potentially leading to a recovery [3]. - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas market presence, with a gross margin of 36.70% from international operations, significantly higher than the domestic margin of 29.89% [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 3.008 billion RMB, 3.450 billion RMB, and 3.973 billion RMB, respectively, with net profits expected to be 608 million RMB, 720 million RMB, and 841 million RMB. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 12, 10, and 8 times [5].