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Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy is to be bullish with a sideways trend [4] Core Viewpoints - The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive time, and the market is concerned about the clues of the Fed's interest rate cut. Gold has reached a new high due to the return of risk aversion, while silver's fundamentals are weak and it is likely to follow gold passively. With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the factors for going long on silver are increasing. Although the US economic data shows some resilience and the US stocks have rebounded to some extent, the market believes that the US stocks have limited upward momentum without the Fed's interest rate cut. The short - term fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate is weakening, and it is not an important factor affecting precious metals [2][3] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - The continuous decline of the US dollar index has supported gold. The market focuses on the US tariff progress, inflation expectations, and the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm. After the panic subsides, the risk - aversion sentiment boosts the gold's bull market. Recently, gold has slightly corrected due to the rebound of US stocks. Silver has insufficient short - term upward momentum, but its long - position momentum will increase if the Fed starts the interest rate cut process [9] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - On April 28, according to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 90.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 9.7%. The final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in April was 52.2, a new low since July 2022. The one - year inflation rate expectation was 6.5%, a new high since January 1980. The number of initial jobless claims last week was 222,000. The order of durable goods in March increased by 9.2% month - on - month. The Fed entered a quiet period on Saturday, and the interest rate is expected to remain unchanged. Trump's tariff policy has increased the cost of merchants, and the prices of nearly 1,000 commodities on Amazon have risen by nearly 30% on average. The retail sales in March increased by 1.4% month - on - month, the largest increase since January 2023 [12][14] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 US Economy and Policy - The US economic data shows that although there is increasing downward pressure, there is still resilience. The consumer confidence index in April reached a new low, but the inflation rate expectation reached a new high. The retail sales in March increased significantly, and the employment data was better than expected. The GDP in the fourth quarter was higher than expected, and inflation was lower than expected [15] 3.2 International Economy and Geopolitics - The negotiation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict is not going smoothly, which increases the uncertainty. Trump signed administrative orders on "reciprocal tariffs", which will impose different levels of tariffs on trading partners. These factors have intensified the safe - haven property of precious metals [19] 3.3 Other Financial Markets - Affected by the US tariff increase, risk - preference assets such as US stocks, crude oil, and copper have fallen sharply. Although US stocks have rebounded recently, Wall Street is still pessimistic about the future. With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, these risk assets may rebound to some extent, but their long - term trends need further observation. Crude oil may move independently of precious metals due to geopolitical factors [20] 3.4 RMB Exchange Rate - Due to the weakening of the US dollar index, the depreciation pressure on the RMB exchange rate has decreased. The central bank may cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates. The RMB exchange rate is not the main factor affecting precious metals [26] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Gold may decline during holidays due to the influence of other commodities, but its safe - haven property will strengthen after the short - term liquidity crisis. It is still expected to be bullish, but the upward space is limited. Silver may follow gold's fluctuations, and its sideways characteristics will be more obvious. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the increase of silver's long - position momentum [28]