偏空因素主导，动力煤弱势运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In April 2025, domestic thermal coal prices declined slightly. As of April 22, the quotation for 5500K at Qinhuangdao Port was 662 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan month - on - month and 157 yuan lower than the same period last year [1][8][69]. - The supply side of thermal coal faces strong pressure. In March 2025, the national raw coal output was 440 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%, setting a new record for the highest monthly output. The total supply was 479 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.8%. After entering April, the coal output in the main producing areas still increased slightly, and the import volume was expected to be close to that in March [1][17][69]. - The demand side is weak. April and May are the traditional off - seasons for thermal coal. As of April 17, the daily consumption of thermal coal in 8 coastal provinces and 17 inland provinces decreased week - on - week. The non - power industry coal demand is also suppressed by Sino - US trade frictions [2][20][70]. - In the intermediate link, the coal inventory in the Bohai Rim ports and terminal power plants is at a high level. As of April 22, the total inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim reached 3.1332 million tons, accumulating 664,000 tons in April, and was 792,300 tons higher than the same period last year [2][31][70]. - Overall, the bearish factors for thermal coal are piling up, and the supply - demand pattern remains loose. The relatively positive factor is that the inventory replenishment market in the industry chain for peak summer may drive the coal price to stop falling and stabilize, but the expected rebound space is limited, and the overall coal price trend is still downward [3][9][72] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Market Review 1.1 Price Review - Domestic thermal coal prices declined slightly in April 2025. The bearish factors are still accumulating, including increased domestic production, Sino - US trade frictions, the growth of clean energy, and high inventory levels restricting the rebound of coal prices during the replenishment period [8]. - Internationally, the global coal supply is also in surplus, and international coal prices are running weakly. In April, most terminals were waiting and watching, and the price of Indonesian coal in South China ports was relatively high compared to domestic coal [9]. 1.2 Futures - Spot Price Difference As of April 22, the price of the main thermal coal futures contract was 139.4 yuan/ton higher than the spot price of 5500 - kcal thermal coal produced in Shanxi at Qinhuangdao Port [14] Chapter 2: Analysis of Factors Affecting Prices 2.1 Supply Side 2.1.1 Origin Situation - In March 2025, the national raw coal output was 441 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. From January to March, the cumulative output was 1.203 billion tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 8.1%. The production increase in March was mainly concentrated in Shanxi and Xinjiang, with year - on - year increases of 19.1% and 20.6% respectively [17][18]. - In Shanxi, coal mines maintained a high operating level after the Two Sessions. In March, the output was 11.3831 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.6%. In Inner Mongolia, the new safety standard policy restricted the production capacity of some small and medium - sized coal mines. In Shaanxi and Xinjiang, coal production also increased [18][19]. 2.1.2 Import Volume - In March 2025, China imported 38.73 million tons of coal and lignite, a year - on - year decrease of 6.4%. From January to March, the cumulative import was 114.85 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. In April, the coal import volume was expected to increase slightly compared to March but still decrease significantly year - on - year [24]. 2.2 Intermediate - Link Shipment 2.2.1 Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway In March 2025, the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway transported 35.27 million tons of coal, a year - on - year decrease of 2.08%. During the spring maintenance in April, the daily transportation limit was reduced to 1 million tons, but the port coal inventory still increased [27][28]. 2.2.2 Bohai Rim Ports - In March 2025, the total railway coal inflow of seven major ports in the Bohai Rim was 52.25 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.19%. The total outflow was 51.037 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.71%. In April, the inflow was still higher than the outflow, and the inventory increased [30][31]. 2.2.3 Shipping Situation - In April, the international dry bulk shipping market weakened seasonally. The BDI index decreased month - on - month and year - on - year, mainly dragged down by the Capesize ship (BCI) index. The domestic shipping market was relatively active, and the freight rate remained high - level volatile [37][38][41] 2.3 Demand Side 2.3.1 Total Social Electricity Consumption - In March 2025, the total social electricity consumption was 828.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. From January to March, the cumulative consumption was 2384.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. The growth rate of electricity consumption slowed down due to the warm winter and non - power industries [45][47][48]. 2.3.2 Power Generation Structure - In March 2025, the national industrial power generation above designated size was 778 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. From January to March, the cumulative power generation was 2269.9 billion kWh, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. The proportion of thermal power decreased, while the proportion of clean energy increased [52][53]. 2.3.3 Non - Power Industry Coal Demand - From January to March, the real estate industry was still in adjustment, and infrastructure project reviews were strict. The non - power industry's support for coal demand was insufficient. The Sino - US trade friction had an indirect impact on non - power terminal exports, and non - power industry coal demand was expected to be weak [62][63] Chapter 3: Conclusion - The supply of thermal coal remains high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is at a high level. The bearish factors are piling up, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. The coal price may stop falling and stabilize during the peak - summer replenishment period, but the rebound space is limited, and the overall trend is downward [69][70][72]