成本端拖累，煤焦弱势震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Coke: This week, coke continued the pattern of increasing supply and demand, with a more obvious increase on the demand side. The short - term fundamentals of coke are acceptable, and the main futures contract maintained a low - level volatile operation. However, current macro - level disturbances are still intense. There were repeated Sino - US trade frictions in April, and there is strong uncertainty about the future of the tariff dispute. China's domestic demand boost policies are imminent. The Political Bureau meeting of the CPC Central Committee on April 25 proposed to implement more proactive macro - policies, make full use of a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. Overall, the medium - and long - term logic of coke remains unchanged. The cost - side drag caused by the loose supply of coking coal and concerns about terminal demand compress the rebound space of coke futures. But short - term macro - level disturbances and marginal improvements in coke's own fundamentals provide some support for prices. It is expected that the main coke contract will maintain a low - level volatile operation in the near future, and attention should be paid to domestic policy developments [5][34]. - Coking coal: From March to April, there were no major production accidents in Shanxi, and the coal mine safety supervision environment in the region was relatively stable, with output remaining at a high level. In March, the raw coal output in Shanxi increased by 19.1% year - on - year, and since April, the coal output in Shanxi has continued to operate at a high level, and it is expected to record a positive year - on - year growth. Meanwhile, the import volume of Mongolian coal in April improved significantly compared with March. At present, although the price of coking coal has been falling continuously, the situation of loose supply has not been reversed, and the overall fundamentals are still bearish. In the spot market, the latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 1,035 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week, and the cost of the equivalent futures warehouse receipt is about 1,008 yuan/ton. Overall, the fundamental pressure on coking coal still exists, but recent macro - level disturbances are intense, and the market's long - short game has intensified. The main coking coal contract temporarily maintains a low - level volatile operation. Attention should be paid to whether there will be domestic demand boost policies in the future [6][35]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industry News - The National Energy Administration reported that in the first quarter, the national energy supply was sufficient, and the overall supply - demand situation was loose. Energy production increased steadily, and the growth rate of coal, oil, gas, and electricity production accelerated in March. In the first quarter, the raw coal output of industrial enterprises above designated size was 1.2 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.1%; in March, the raw coal output of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 9.6% year - on - year, with a daily output of more than 14 million tons. The crude oil output of industrial enterprises above designated size in the first quarter was 54.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%, and in March, it increased by 3.5% year - on - year. The natural gas output of industrial enterprises above designated size in the first quarter was 66 billion cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 4.3%, and in March, it increased by 5.0% year - on - year. The cumulative installed power generation capacity nationwide in the first quarter reached 3.43 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%. In March, the growth rate of power generation of industrial enterprises above designated size was 3.1 percentage points higher than that from January to February [8]. - On April 28, the price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market remained stable. The ex - factory price of low - sulfur main coking clean coal (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) was 1,300 yuan/ton, including tax in cash [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade flat - price) | 1,440 | 0.00% | 3.60% | - 14.79% | - 25.77% | | Coke (Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade ex - warehouse) | 1,350 | 0.75% | - 0.74% | - 16.67% | - 33.50% | | Coking coal (Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port) | 1,035 | 0.00% | - 4.17% | - 12.29% | - 35.31% | | Coking coal (Australian - produced at Jingtang Port) | 1,300 | - 0.76% | - 5.11% | - 12.75% | - 41.96% | | Coking coal (Shanxi - produced at Jingtang Port) | 1,400 | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 8.50% | - 34.88% | [10] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change Rate | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,562.0 | - 1.20 | 1,587.0 | 1,553.5 | 23,887 | - 2,703 | 36,957 | 145 | | Coking coal | | 947.0 | - 1.66 | 968.0 | 943.5 | 387,146 | - 63,343 | 339,613 | 2,996 | [13] Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts related to coke and coking coal inventories, including 230 independent coking plants' coke inventory, 247 steel mills' coking plants' coke inventory, port coke total inventory, coke total inventory, mine - mouth coking coal inventory, port coking coal inventory, 247 sample steel mills' coking coal inventory, and other relevant production and consumption - related charts such as Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel mill production situation, coal washing plant production situation, and coking plant operation situation [14][21][28] Market Outlook - Coke: This week, coke continued the pattern of increasing supply and demand, with a more obvious increase on the demand side. The short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and the main futures contract maintains a low - level volatile operation. Due to intense macro - level disturbances and the unchanged medium - and long - term logic, it is expected to maintain a low - level volatile operation in the near future, and attention should be paid to domestic policy developments [34] - Coking coal: From March to April, the coal output in Shanxi remained high, and the import volume of Mongolian coal improved in April. The supply is still loose, and the fundamentals are bearish. The main contract temporarily maintains a low - level volatile operation, and attention should be paid to whether there will be domestic demand boost policies [35]