山金期货贵金属策略报告-20250428

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the short - term, oscillate at high levels in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term. The core logic includes the phased realization of Trump's trade - war risks leading to a decline in safe - haven demand, and an increase in the risk of U.S. economic stagflation causing the expected decline of the real yield of U.S. Treasury bonds [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of funds, the net long position of CFTC silver has recently increased again, while the iShare silver ETF has reduced its position at a high level. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has decreased slightly recently [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold - Market Performance: Today, precious metals oscillated downward. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 1.44%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed down 1.52% [1]. - Core Logic: Short - term Trump trade - war risks are phased realized, safe - haven demand declines; the risk of U.S. economic stagflation increases, and the expected real yield of U.S. Treasury bonds decreases [1]. - Attributes Analysis - Safe - haven Attribute: Trump's reciprocal tariffs are realized, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Besent hints at the easing of Sino - U.S. trade tensions. Trump recently stated that he has no intention to remove Federal Reserve Chairman Powell [1]. - Monetary Attribute: U.S. consumer confidence in April remains weak, and tariff concerns persist. The one - year inflation expectation of consumers is 6.5%, the highest since 1981, with a continuous increase of 0.5 percentage points or more for four consecutive months. The long - term inflation expectation is 4.4%. The market currently expects the Fed to cut interest rates next time in June, and the expected total interest - rate cut space in 2025 has returned to around 100 basis points. The U.S. dollar index encounters resistance in its downward movement, and the yield of U.S. Treasury bonds oscillates strongly [1]. - Commodity Attribute: The CRB commodity index oscillates downward, and the depreciation of the RMB benefits domestic prices [1]. - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [1][2][4]. 3.2 Silver - Price Anchor: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver [4]. - Fund and Inventory Situation: In terms of funds, the net long position of CFTC silver has recently increased again, while the iShare silver ETF has reduced its position at a high level. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has decreased slightly recently [4]. - Strategy: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Position management and strict stop - losses and take - profits are recommended [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - U.S. Federal Reserve Data: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%, the total assets of the Federal Reserve are 67780.29 billion U.S. dollars, M2 (year - on - year) is 4.12%, the real yield of 10 - year U.S. Treasury bonds is 2.48, and the U.S. dollar index is 99.57 [6]. - Other Key Indicators: Various indicators such as U.S. bond spreads, inflation data, economic growth data, labor market data, real estate market data, consumption data, and industrial data are presented, showing different trends of increase and decrease [8]. - Safe - haven and Commodity Attributes: The geopolitical risk index is 170.08, the VIX index is 25.89, the CRB commodity index is 298.46, and the offshore RMB is 7.2966 [9]. - Fed Interest - Rate Expectation: The probability distribution of the Fed's interest - rate levels in different meetings from 2025 to 2026 is provided according to the CME FedWatch tool [10].