宏观因素扰动、棕榈油逢高沽空交易为佳

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint Due to potential reforms in India's vegetable oil import tariffs, slow repair of the inverted spot price spread between soybeans and palm oil, downstream rigid - demand procurement, weak downward - trending basis, poor trading atmosphere, the arrival of the production - increasing season, and a large increase in domestic arrivals in May, the near - term palm oil prices are under pressure. The recommended operation is to short on rallies [2][13][14]. Section Summaries 1. Supply Situation Analysis SPPOMA data shows that from April 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm fresh fruit bunch yield per unit increased by 3.34%, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.12%, and palm oil production increased by 3.97%. MPOA data indicates that from April 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 19.88% compared to the same period last month, with different increases in various regions. Palm oil has entered the production - increasing season, and high - frequency production data shows a continuous increasing trend [6]. 2. Demand Situation Analysis The report does not provide detailed content for this section, only listing the title [8]. 3. Cost - Profit Analysis The report only lists relevant chart information about palm oil import cost and profit, without specific content [11]. 4. Market Outlook India may reform its vegetable oil import tariffs, considering raising import tariffs on refined varieties to support domestic refining capacity. The inverted spot price spread between soybeans and palm oil is slowly repairing, downstream maintains rigid - demand procurement, the basis is still weakly downward, and the trading atmosphere is poor. With the arrival of the production - increasing season and a large increase in domestic arrivals in May, near - term prices are under pressure, and it is recommended to short on rallies [2][13][14].