有色金属周报（锌）：高锌价抑制消费，沪锌反弹空间有限-20250428

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - level tariff and trade frictions have eased, domestic export and social financing data are stable and improving, and the Fed's statements have increased market expectations of interest rate cuts, reducing the pressure on non - ferrous metals. - On the raw material side, the accident at the Antamina mine in Peru last week had a minor impact on annual production. With the decline of zinc prices, the willingness of the mine end to raise TC is not high, and the increase space for TC in May is limited. As of April 25, the average import TC was 35 dollars/dry ton, and the average domestic TC was 3,450 yuan/metal ton. - On the supply side, domestic smelters have regular maintenance plans in April - May. Although zinc prices have declined, TC is stable and improving, and smelter profits have been repaired. Some maintenance plans have been postponed to mid - late May. The monthly output in April is expected to rise to about 570,000 tons. - On the demand side, downstream consumption is in the seasonal off - season. After the zinc price rebounds, purchasing weakens, and there is no "rush to export" phenomenon, with overall weak support. - In terms of inventory, last week, zinc prices continued to rise, and the spot premium was high. Downstream buyers were cautious, but market arrivals also decreased, leading to a slight reduction in social inventory. - It is expected that the short - term zinc price will mainly fluctuate within the range of 21,500 - 23,500 yuan/ton. The strategy is to maintain short positions on rallies. With the upcoming May Day holiday, there is high macro uncertainty, so it is recommended to hold light or no positions during the holiday and continue to pay attention to macro and downstream consumption situations. [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - SMM1 zinc ingot average price rose 3.35% to 23,110 yuan/ton, the closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract rose 3.17% to 22,750 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) rose 2.66% to 2,645.5 dollars/ton. [12] 3.2 Raw Material Side - Zinc concentrate port inventory: As of April 25, the inventory of imported zinc ore in Lianyungang was 120,000 tons, a sequential increase. The total inventory of 7 ports including Fangchenggang, Lianyungang, etc. was 380,000 tons, also a sequential increase. [22] - Zinc concentrate profit: TC continued to rise, and last week's improvement in zinc prices drove up the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises. As of April 25, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 5,038 yuan/metal ton. In March, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 359,500 tons, a sequential decrease of 22.09% and a year - on - year increase of 47.16%. [29] - TC increase speed: The willingness of the mine end to hold prices has increased, and the speed of TC increase has slowed down. [31] 3.3 Supply Side - Refined zinc monthly output: The production profit of refined zinc enterprises has continued to improve. As of April 25, the production profit was - 428 yuan/ton. In March, with the accelerated increase of zinc concentrate processing fees, smelters' production enthusiasm was high, and the output increased to about 546,900 tons. In April, due to the continuous improvement of profits, some enterprises postponed their maintenance plans, and the output is expected to increase to about 570,000 tons. [36] - Import window: The import profit window has closed. As of April 25, the import profit of refined zinc was - 106.38 yuan/ton. From January to March 2025, the import volume of refined zinc was 101,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4,300 tons. The Fed's speech increased market expectations of interest rate cuts, and overseas zinc mine disturbances led to an upward shift of LME zinc prices. The import window opened briefly and then closed. [39] 3.4 Demand Side - Galvanizing: The galvanizing enterprise's operating rate decreased by 1.90 percentage points to 62.44%. The decline in black prices and the "buy - on - rising" mentality of traders led to a decline in galvanizing operating rates. Terminal special - high - voltage orders began to be released, and tower orders were stable. There was a 90 - day buffer period for exports, but the uncertainty was high, and the "rush to export" was not obvious. With the May Day holiday, some enterprises will have 1 - 5 days off, and the operating rate is expected to decline. Galvanizing enterprises' raw material inventory decreased, and finished product inventory increased slightly. [47][50] - Die - cast zinc alloy: The price of zinc alloy increased. The average price of Zamak3 zinc alloy rose 3.26% to 23,780 yuan/ton, and the average price of Zamak5 zinc alloy rose 3.18% to 24,330 yuan/ton. The operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy enterprises increased by 0.59 percentage points to 58.98%. Some enterprises stopped production for the May Day holiday last week, and a slight increase in production drove up the operating rate. Some terminal sectors entered the off - season, and due to previous low - price stockpiling by downstream, recent orders have weakened. Die - cast zinc alloy enterprises' raw material inventory decreased, and finished product inventory increased. [58][61][64] - Zinc oxide: The price of zinc oxide increased. The average price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% rose 3.27% to 22,100 yuan/ton. The operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises decreased by 1.02 percentage points to 59.77%. In terms of terminal orders, rubber - grade demand weakened, ceramic - grade orders were relatively stable, feed - grade orders were expected to weaken, and export orders were average. Zinc oxide enterprises' raw material inventory decreased, and finished product inventory increased. [70][73][76] 3.5 Inventory - Social inventory: As of April 24, the SMM zinc ingot three - place inventory was 73,800 tons, showing a decline. In Shanghai and Guangdong, arrivals were low during the week, and in Tianjin, arrivals increased slightly. However, due to previous low - price restocking by downstream, recent purchasing enthusiasm has weakened, leading to a slight reduction in inventory. As of April 24, the SMM zinc ingot bonded area inventory was 12,100 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous period. [82] - Exchange inventory: As of April 25, the SHFE inventory was 51,400 tons, showing a decrease, and the LME inventory was 180,100 tons, also showing a decrease. [85] - Monthly supply - demand balance sheet: It shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and monthly supply - demand balance of zinc from December 2024 to February 2025. [86]