库存仍处高位，震荡运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current soda ash production is at a high level with average profits, and it is expected to remain stable at a high level this week. The downstream demand for soda ash is expected to be moderately weak. The production of downstream float glass is expected to decline, and there is an expectation of 1 - 2 production lines of photovoltaic glass to be ignited this week, but it may be postponed due to the weakening market. Under the background of loose supply - demand of soda ash, it is difficult for soda ash enterprises to reduce their high - level inventory, and it is expected that the inventory will remain at a high level in the near future. The soda ash price is expected to fluctuate in the near future, with the upper pressure of the 09 contract at the 1420 level. It is recommended to short at high levels in the short term and pay attention to stop - loss [2][22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Market Review - The domestic soda ash market showed a weak trend, with individual enterprises adjusting prices slightly. The weekly soda ash output was 755,100 tons, a decrease of 500 tons or 0.06% compared with the previous week. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 89.44%, a decrease of 0.06% compared with the previous week. The soda ash plant inventory was 1.691 million tons, a decrease of 20,300 tons or 1.19% compared with the previous week. The pending orders of soda ash fluctuated slightly, with individual low - price orders increasing, and some enterprises' orders lasted until the end of the month, maintaining more than 11 days [8]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 3.2.1 Supply - side Analysis - As of April 24, the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 89.44%, a decrease of 0.06% compared with the previous week. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of ammonia - soda process was 87.12%, a decrease of 0.73% compared with the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate of combined - soda process was 87.12%, an increase of 0.97% compared with the previous week. The overall capacity utilization rate of 14 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons and above was 89.73%, an increase of 0.82% compared with the previous week. The theoretical profit of China's combined - soda process soda ash (double - ton) was 255.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 101.40 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The theoretical profit of China's ammonia - soda process soda ash was 17.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 78.25 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [11][12][15]. 3.2.2 Demand - side Analysis - Photovoltaic glass production: As of April 24, there were 100 in - production kilns and 449 in - production lines of photovoltaic glass nationwide, with a daily melting capacity of 97,330 tons/day. It is expected that there will be 1 - 2 production lines to be ignited this week, but it may be postponed. Near the May Day holiday, the downstream stocking willingness of photovoltaic glass is not high, and it still mainly purchases based on rigid demand. After the "430" installation rush window closes, the photovoltaic module market will enter an accelerated adjustment period, and the production schedule in May may face downward pressure. The over - capacity pressure brought by the recent large - scale production of photovoltaic glass will continue to suppress price competition. - Float glass production: As of April 24, the weekly production of float glass was 110,580 tons, a decrease of 0.32% compared with the previous week and a decrease of 9.32% compared with the same period last year. The average operating rate of the float glass industry was 75.85%, an increase of 0.19 percentage points compared with the previous week; the average capacity utilization rate was 78.78%, a decrease of 0.25 percentage points compared with the previous week. It is expected that the production will decrease this week [16]. 3.2.3 Inventory Analysis - As of April 24, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.691 million tons, a decrease of 20,300 tons or 1.19% compared with the previous week. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 850,500 tons, an increase of 3,600 tons compared with the previous week; the inventory of heavy soda ash was 840,500 tons, a decrease of 23,900 tons compared with the previous week [18]. 3.2.4 Position Analysis - As of April 25, the long - position volume of the top 20 members in soda ash futures was 734,781, a decrease of 9,978, and the short - position volume was 871,858, an increase of 16,837. The net position of the top 20 members was bearish [20]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The current soda ash production is at a high level with average profits, and it is expected to remain stable at a high level this week. The downstream demand for soda ash is expected to be moderately weak. The production of downstream float glass is expected to decline, and there is an expectation of 1 - 2 production lines of photovoltaic glass to be ignited this week, but it may be postponed due to the weakening market. Under the background of loose supply - demand of soda ash, it is difficult for soda ash enterprises to reduce their high - level inventory, and it is expected that the inventory will remain at a high level in the near future. The soda ash price is expected to fluctuate in the near future, with the upper pressure of the 09 contract at the 1420 level. It is recommended to short at high levels in the short term and pay attention to stop - loss [2][22].