Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Views - Rubber: On Monday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating weakly, and slightly closing lower. Although the macro - sentiment has improved recently, the supply of the rubber market is expected to increase, and the domestic and foreign natural rubber producing areas are about to enter a new tapping season. Meanwhile, domestic tire enterprises are approaching the May Day holiday, and the operating rate is under pressure to decline, so the rubber price lacks follow - up momentum for rebound [4]. - Methanol: On Monday, the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, oscillating strongly, and slightly rising. However, the supply - demand fundamentals of methanol are still weak, with a significant increase in weekly production and a high operating rate of coal - to - methanol. The upward space for methanol in the future may be limited, and attention should be paid to the resistance of the 20 - day moving average [4]. - Crude Oil: On Monday, the domestic crude oil futures 2506 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, oscillating strongly, and slightly rising. After the negative impact of Kazakhstan's production increase has been digested, the crude oil market has entered a stage of long - short divergence, and the upward movement of the futures price is blocked by the 20 - day moving average. It is expected that the domestic oil price will maintain an oscillating and consolidating trend in the future [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Rubber: As of April 20, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 612,500 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons or 1.08% from the previous period. As of the week of April 25, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 65.79%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.65% and a year - on - year increase of 2.29 percentage points; the operating load of semi - steel tires was 72.36%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.84 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.64 percentage points. In March 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.006 million and 2.915 million respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 42.9% and 37% and a year - on - year increase of 11.9% and 8.2%. In the first quarter of 2025, China's cumulative automobile production and sales were 7.561 million and 7.47 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 14.5% and 11.2%. In March 2025, China's heavy - truck sales were about 105,000, a month - on - month increase of 29% and a year - on - year decrease of about 9%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 259,000, a year - on - year decrease of 5% [8][9]. - Methanol: As of the week of April 25, 2025, the average operating rate of domestic methanol was 80.39%, a week - on - week increase of 0.17%, a month - on - month increase of 4.72%, and a year - on - year increase of 6.14%. The average weekly production of methanol was 189,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,160 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 920 tons, and a significant increase of 21,010 tons compared with the same period last year. The operating rates of formaldehyde, acetic acid, and coal (methanol) - to - olefin plants increased slightly week - on - week, while the operating rates of dimethyl ether and MTBE decreased. The futures disk profit of methanol - to - olefin decreased slightly week - on - week but rebounded significantly month - on - month. As of the week of April 18, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 450,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 34,700 tons. As of the week of April 24, 2025, the inland methanol inventory was 309,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 260 tons [10][11][13]. - Crude Oil: As of the week of April 11, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 481, a week - on - week increase of 1 and a decrease of 30 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.46 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 200,000 barrels per day and an increase of 360,000 barrels per day compared with the same period last year. As of the week of April 18, 2025, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 443.104 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 244,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States was 88.1%, a week - on - week increase of 1.8 percentage points. Since April 2025, international crude oil futures prices have shown a weak downward trend. As of April 22, 2025, the net long positions in both WTI and Brent crude oil futures markets decreased significantly week - on - week [13][14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,550 yuan/ton | +150 yuan/ton | 14,730 yuan/ton | -220 yuan/ton | -180 yuan/ton | +220 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,485 yuan/ton | +20 yuan/ton | 2,310 yuan/ton | +22 yuan/ton | +175 yuan/ton | -2 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 455.8 yuan/barrel | -0.1 yuan/barrel | 498.0 yuan/barrel | +0.4 yuan/barrel | -42.2 yuan/barrel | -0.6 yuan/barrel | [15] 3.3 Related Charts The report lists various charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including basis, month - to - month spreads, inventory, and net position changes, with data sources from Wind and Baocheng Futures Research Institute [16][28][40]
橡胶甲醇原油：偏多氛围占优，能化震荡偏强
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-04-28 14:43