SINOLINK SECURITIES·2025-04-28 14:52Group 1 - The report highlights the ongoing escalation of the global tariff war, particularly between the US and China, which is expected to lead to increased volatility in equity markets and a potential "hard landing" for the US economy [2][10][11] - Domestic economic indicators show a weakening trend, with March data reflecting a 12.4% year-on-year increase in exports, driven by a low base and export rush, while imports fell by 4.3%, indicating persistent domestic demand issues [12][13] - The report emphasizes the need to shift investment strategies from small-cap growth to large-cap value defensive stocks, anticipating this transition to last at least until signs of an earnings bottom emerge [2][10][13] Group 2 - Growth-oriented dividend assets are defined as those sacrificing some dividend yield for potential profit improvement through capital expenditure, which may lead to higher valuations in the market [3][23] - The report identifies two main drivers for growth-oriented dividend assets: the expectation of fiscal policy support and the potential for rising dividend yields, which can help avoid static valuation traps [3][23][26] - A comprehensive screening model for growth-oriented dividend assets has been developed, focusing on five key factors: relative dividend yield advantage, stable dividend payout ratio, ample operating cash flow, stable or improving ROE, and increasing capital expenditure [3][35][34] Group 3 - The report suggests a differentiated approach to sector allocation, recommending a reduction in exposure to AI sectors with low penetration rates, while increasing allocation to structural technology growth areas and growth-oriented dividend assets [4][23] - Specific sectors highlighted for increased allocation include telecommunications, infrastructure, and consumer sectors, which are expected to benefit from fiscal expansion and capital expenditure [4][23][24] - The report also notes that gold stocks and innovative pharmaceuticals are positioned to benefit from rising gold prices and improving profit margins, respectively [4][23]