资产配置日报：持券过节-20250428

Market Overview - On April 28, the capital market returned to a state of calm after important meetings, with the stock market slightly declining and the bond market experiencing a slight increase [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and CSI Dividend Index fell by 0.20%, 0.14%, and 0.02% respectively, while the tech sector also showed weakness with the STAR 50 and ChiNext Index down by 0.17% and 0.65% [1] - The bond market saw a decrease in the yields of 10-year and 30-year government bonds by 1.7 basis points and 0.6 basis points to 1.64% and 1.87% respectively [1] Commodity Market - Gold entered a sideways consolidation phase, with London and New York gold fluctuating around $3,300 per ounce, while domestic gold fell by 1.44% to 780 RMB per gram [2] - Industrial metals showed slight weakness, with copper and aluminum down by 0.08% and 0.10% respectively, while the black series exhibited mixed performance [2] Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market is maintaining a "stable and slightly bullish" outlook due to a marginal easing of the funding environment, with the central bank net injecting 103 billion RMB through reverse repos [3] - The overnight rates for non-bank institutions opened at 1.65%-1.68% and later decreased to 1.60%-1.63%, indicating a comfortable funding environment [3] - The upcoming manufacturing PMI data and central bank announcements are expected to act as catalysts for market volatility [3] Equity Market Sentiment - The market continues to exhibit risk-averse sentiment, with the Wind All A Index down by 0.61% and trading volume decreasing to 1.08 trillion RMB, a drop of 602 billion RMB from the previous week [4] - The market has been in a low volatility state since mid-April, with daily fluctuations of the Shanghai Composite Index not exceeding 0.5% [4] Industry Insights - Investors are favoring sectors with relatively stable earnings, such as banking and utilities, which saw respective increases of 0.98% and 0.39% in their SW indices [5] - The steel and home appliance sectors are also attracting attention due to significant earnings growth, with steel companies reporting a 53.81% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q1 2025 [5] Sector Highlights - The technology sector remains a focal point, with the AI computing sector showing a slight increase, and the PEEK materials index rising by 3.03% [6] - The Hong Kong market outperformed the A-share market, with the Hang Seng Index down by only 0.04% while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.12% [7] - Southbound capital showed a net inflow of 2.03 billion RMB, indicating a mixed trading strategy among investors [7] Conclusion - Overall, the market is characterized by a low volatility state with a focus on earnings as a trading cue, and historical trends suggest that such periods may precede increased volatility [7]