Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic mainstream urea spot factory - gate prices continued to decline, but the transaction improved significantly. The urea market is expected to show a short - term volatile trend, with the factory - gate prices in some regions expected to stop falling and rise, and in some areas to follow the upward trend. The short - term trading strategy is short - term volatility (mainly short positions), long - term layout of 9 - 1 positive spreads below 0, and double - selling for options [3][5][6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Futures market: Urea futures rebounded from the bottom, closing at 1781 (+19/+1.08%) [3] - Spot market: The factory - gate prices continued to decline, but the transaction improved significantly. The factory - gate prices in different regions are as follows: Henan 1730 - 1740 yuan/ton, Shandong small - sized particles 1730 - 1750 yuan/ton, Hebei small - sized particles 1760 - 1770 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium - and small - sized particles 1690 - 1700 yuan/ton, Anhui small - sized particles 1740 - 1750 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1650 - 1690 yuan/ton [3] Important Information - On April 28, the daily urea production in the industry was 20.16 tons, an increase of 0.65 tons from the previous working day and 1.46 tons from the same period last year. The daily operating rate was 87.43%, a 1.07% increase from 86.36% in the same period last year [4] Logical Analysis - The spot factory - gate prices in mainstream domestic regions continued to decline, but the transaction improved significantly. In Shandong and Henan, the factory - gate prices are expected to rise. In the areas around the delivery area, the factory - gate prices are expected to follow the upward trend. The daily production increased to around 200,000 tons, at the highest level in the same period. The demand side has no possibility of export due to strict legal inspections. The production enthusiasm of compound fertilizers in Central and North China decreased, and the demand for urea declined. The previous supply - demand imbalance was alleviated to some extent, and the market sentiment cooled down. The urea enterprises started to accumulate inventory in April, and the total inventory increased from 700,000 tons to 1.06 million tons. After the factory - gate prices were lowered, the transaction improved. It is expected that the acceptance of downstream and traders will cool down again, and the short - term trend will be volatile [5] Trading Strategy - Single - side: Short - term volatility (mainly short positions) [6] - Arbitrage: Long - term layout of 9 - 1 positive spreads below 0 [6] - Options: Double - selling [9]
银河期货尿素日报-20250428
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-04-28 15:25