KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-04-28 15:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [1] Core Views - The company has shown an improvement in loan and deposit growth rates, with stable asset quality [1] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 33.086 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 4.06%, but the decline is narrowing [4][5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 12.464 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 0.31%, indicating stable profitability [4] - The revenue structure has become more balanced, with net interest income of 22.538 billion yuan (YoY -6.84%) and non-interest income of 10.548 billion yuan (YoY +2.46%) [4] - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 41.7 billion, 41.8 billion, and 42.4 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of +0.05%, +0.20%, and +1.51% [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - As of Q1 2025, total loans amounted to 4.11 trillion yuan, growing by 5.24% compared to the beginning of the year, which is an acceleration from the previous year [5] - Total deposits reached 4.27 trillion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 3.49%, reversing three consecutive quarters of negative growth [5] - The deposit cost rate decreased by 14 basis points to 2.18% in 2024, partially offsetting the decline in asset yield [5] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 1.25%, indicating overall asset quality is sound [6] - The provision coverage ratio was 174.44%, down 6.15 percentage points from the end of 2024 [6] - The company has a high dividend payout ratio, with cash dividends reaching 30.14% of net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders, up from 28.41% in 2023 [6] Valuation Metrics - As of April 28, 2025, the price-to-book (PB) ratio was 0.48, suggesting potential for valuation improvement [6] - The current stock price corresponds to PB ratios of 0.45, 0.44, and 0.42 for the years 2025-2027 [4][7]