银河期货油脂日报-20250428

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the impact of the tariff war gradually fades, the oil and fat market is expected to return to fundamentals, with short - term prices remaining volatile. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil have positive support, while palm oil may weaken [10]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - Spot Prices and Basis: The closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil on April 28, 2025, were 7814, 8174, and 9333 respectively, with price drops. The basis of each variety showed different trends in different regions [4]. - Monthly Spread: The 9 - 1 monthly spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 76, 48, and 187 respectively, with changes of 0, 4, and 32 [4]. - Cross - Variety Spreads: The 09 - contract spreads of Y - P, OI - Y, and OI - P were (360), 1519, and 1159 respectively, with changes of 82, (53), and 29. The oil - meal ratio was 2.62, with a change of 0.0001 [4]. - Import Profits: The 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia had a negative profit of (470), and the FOB price of rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was 1080, with a negative profit of (1189) [4]. - Weekly Commercial Inventory: In the 16th week of 2025, the commercial inventories of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 65.0, 38.4, and 79.9 million tons respectively, showing different trends compared to the previous week and the same period last year [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - International Market: There are rumors that the EPA may postpone the update of RVO standards until the second half of the year [6]. - Domestic Market - Palm Oil: Affected by US biodiesel rumors, palm oil futures prices fell by over 2%. As of April 25, 2025, the commercial inventory decreased, and the import profit deficit widened. It is expected to maintain a tight inventory, with short - term narrow - range fluctuations [6]. - Domestic Market - Soybean Oil: Futures prices fell by over 1%. The soybean crushing volume increased last week, and the inventory decreased. With the arrival of Brazilian soybeans, the inventory may gradually increase, and the basis may weaken. The short - term price will fluctuate, and YP09 can be considered to be expanded at low prices [6][8]. - Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil: Futures prices fell by over 1%. The crushing volume of rapeseed increased last week, and the inventory decreased slightly. The import profit deficit narrowed. The short - term price will fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the purchase of rapeseed and rapeseed oil and policy changes [8]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Single - Side Strategy: Short - term oil and fat prices will remain volatile. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil have positive factors, while palm oil may weaken [10]. - Arbitrage Strategy: Expand YP09 at low prices [10]. - Option Strategy: Wait and see [10]. 3.4 Relevant Attachments - The attachments include multiple charts showing the historical trends of basis, monthly spreads, and cross - variety spreads of different oil and fat varieties [13][16]