豆粕、豆油期货品种周报-20250428

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the soybean meal futures, the mid - line trend is in a wide - range oscillation. The current tight supply is due to slow recovery of oil mill operations and downstream stocking, but future supply is expected to increase. It's recommended to wait and see [6]. - For the soybean oil futures, the overall trend is in an interval oscillation. There is a temporary supply shortage before the holiday, but subsequent supply pressure will be released. It's also recommended to wait and see [34]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soybean Meal Futures 3.1.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The soybean meal main contract is in a wide - range oscillation. In the 16th week, the oil mill's soybean actual crushing volume was 1315400 tons, with an operating rate of 36.98%. Soybean inventory increased by 17.58% to 4259100 tons, and the soybean meal inventory decreased by 56.80% to 125500 tons. The slow recovery of oil mill operations and downstream stocking led to a sharp reduction in inventory, but future supply is expected to increase. It's recommended to wait and see [6]. 3.1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The soybean meal futures price was in a sideways oscillation, with more positive funds. M2509 was expected to continue wide - range oscillation in the range of 2950 - 3200, and interval operation was recommended [9]. - This week's strategy recommendation: The soybean meal futures price is in a sideways oscillation, with more negative funds. M2509 is expected to continue wide - range oscillation in the range of 2900 - 3100, and interval operation is recommended [10]. 3.1.3 Related Data Situation - Relevant data includes soybean meal weekly output, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio [20][22][28]. 3.2 Soybean Oil Futures 3.2.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The soybean oil main contract continues an interval oscillation. In the 16th week, the actual output of 125 oil mills was 249900 tons, an increase of 63000 tons from last week. The commercial inventory in key regions decreased by 43500 tons to 650400 tons. Temporary supply shortage before the holiday and improved macro - sentiment, but future supply pressure will be released. It's recommended to wait and see [34]. 3.2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The soybean oil futures price was in a sideways consolidation, with more positive funds. Y2509 was expected to maintain interval oscillation in the range of 7500 - 8000, and interval operation was recommended [37]. - This week's strategy recommendation: The soybean oil futures price is in a sideways consolidation, with more negative funds. Y2509 is expected to maintain interval oscillation in the range of 7700 - 8100, and interval operation is recommended [38]. 3.2.3 Related Data Situation - Relevant data includes soybean oil weekly output, weekly inventory, basis, and trading volume [48][53].