工业硅、多晶硅日评：震荡企稳-20250429

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventory pressure. The silicon price faces significant pressure after a rebound. It is recommended to consider short - selling after the price rebounds, with an operating range of 8,500 - 10,000 yuan/ton [1]. - The polysilicon market has a heavy pessimistic sentiment, with prices in each photovoltaic segment declining. The silicon material transaction price has dropped, and the market is expected to be weakly sorted in the short term. Cross - period strategies such as 06 - 11 positive spreads and 11 - 12 negative spreads can be considered [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price Information - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 9,450 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) industrial silicon decreased by 0.48% to 10,400 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract increased by 0.23% to 8,800 yuan/ton [1]. Supply and Demand - Supply: Furnace openings in Xinjiang decreased, while there were new furnace openings in Sichuan. In April, some silicon enterprises in Yunnan are expected to have new production capacity put into operation, showing an increase in the south and a decrease in the north, with limited overall changes [1]. - Demand: Polysilicon enterprises maintained a production - reduction trend; organic silicon enterprises had a strong willingness to reduce production and support prices, but demand was weak, and downstream观望 sentiment was strong. The actual transaction price declined. The start - up of domestic monomer enterprises in production increased and decreased, and it is expected that the start - up rate will drop below 70% in April, further reducing the demand for industrial silicon. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchased on demand, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels was insufficient [1]. Investment Strategy - Consider short - selling after the price rebounds, with an operating range of 8,500 - 10,000 yuan/ton, and continuously monitor the production dynamics of silicon enterprises [1]. Polysilicon Price Information - The price of N - type dense material remained flat at 38 yuan/kg; the price of polysilicon re - feeding material remained flat at 35.5 yuan/kg; the price of polysilicon dense material remained flat at 34.5 yuan/kg; the price of polysilicon cauliflower material remained flat at 33.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 1.59% to 37,780 yuan/ton [1]. Supply and Demand - Supply: Silicon material enterprises maintained a production - reduction trend, and the output in April is expected to remain within 100,000 tons [1]. - Demand: As the 430 rush - installation node approaches, the demand for distributed component orders has cooled, but the demand for centralized orders has started to increase. The battery production schedule has increased to 63 - 64GW, with sufficient supply and a decline in the transaction price. The production schedules of leading silicon wafer enterprises are relatively cautious, and the silicon wafer production schedule in April may fall short of expectations. After the demand in the middle and late April and May ends, the upside space for silicon wafers is limited [1]. Investment Strategy - It is expected to be weakly sorted in the short term. Continuously monitor the futures warehouse receipt registration situation and the actual production situation of silicon material factories. Cross - period strategies such as 06 - 11 positive spreads and 11 - 12 negative spreads can be considered [1]. Other Information - The price of silicon coal in many places has been reduced. As of April 27, the price of silicon - mixed coal in Gansu was 1,020 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous period, and the price of granular coal was 1,180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous period. The price of non - caking silicon coal in Xinjiang was 900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton from the previous period [1]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the newly installed grid - connected capacity of photovoltaic in China was 59.71 million kilowatts, of which centralized photovoltaic accounted for 23.41 million kilowatts and distributed photovoltaic accounted for 36.31 million kilowatts. As of the end of March 2025, the installed capacity of photovoltaic in China reached 945 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 43.4%. The cumulative power generation of photovoltaic in the first quarter of 2025 was 232.8 billion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 43.9%, and the utilization rate of photovoltaic power generation reached 93.6% [1]. - A Japanese solar solution provider, TOYO Solar, established a 2GW photovoltaic cell manufacturing plant in Ethiopia, which was put into production in early April 2025 [1].