国泰君安期货所长早读-20250429

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Politburo meeting set the policy direction after the change in the external environment. In the short - term, the focus is on accelerating the implementation of previously established policies, with sufficient policy reserves for potential additional hedging in the future. High - frequency data shows that foreign trade impact is increasing, and domestic real - estate sales are under pressure. It is expected that the macro data in April will weaken moderately. Near - term policies will focus on the implementation of structural policy tools emphasized in the Politburo meeting. Later, when the real impact of trade frictions on the economy and the direction of tariffs are clearer, domestic policies may be further strengthened, including the possibility of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts [8]. - Gold's current adjustment is tactical, and its strategic upward trend is unlikely to end easily. The short - term performance of gold is highly affected by the US tariff negotiation process. Even if gold prices fall due to the US loosening on tariffs, it may indicate that the US economy has been affected by tariffs, and the recession - interest rate cut chain may fuel gold's rebound in the second quarter [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals - Gold: Risk preference is rising. The adjustment is tactical, and the strategic upward trend is difficult to end. The short - term performance is affected by US tariff negotiations. Yesterday, the closing price of沪金2506 was 780.04, with a daily decline of 0.91%, and the night - session closing price was 793.68, with a night - session increase of 1.57%. The trend strength is 0 [9][13][17]. - Silver: It is stabilizing and rebounding. Yesterday, the closing price of沪银2506 was 8168, with a daily decline of 1.35%, and the night - session closing price was 8244.00, with a night - session increase of 0.48%. The trend strength is 0 [13][17]. 3.2 Base Metals - Copper: Inventory reduction supports prices. Yesterday, the closing price of the沪铜主力合约 was 77,580, with a daily increase of 0.18%. The trend strength is 0 [13][21]. - Aluminum: It is in a range - bound oscillation. The沪铝主力合约 closed at 19935, down 95. The trend strength is 0 [13][24]. - Alumina: It is still searching for a bottom. The沪氧化铝主力合约 closed at 2862. The trend strength is 0 [13][24]. - Zinc: It is in a range - bound consolidation. The沪锌主力 closed at 22520, down 1.01%. The trend strength is 0 [13][27]. - Lead: It is in a narrow - range oscillation. The沪铅主力 closed at 17005, up 0.35%. The trend strength is 0 [13][30]. - Nickel: The upward and downward spaces are converging, and the nickel price may oscillate in a narrow range. The沪镍主力 closed at 124,690, down 1,110. The trend strength is 0 [13][32][33]. - Stainless Steel: Spot prices are falling to correct the basis, and there is a game between cost and negative feedback on the disk. The不锈钢主力 closed at 12,765, up 85. The trend strength is 0 [13][33]. - Tin: It is slightly recovering. The沪锡主力 closed at 262,840, up 1.26%. The trend strength is 0 [13][36][37]. 3.3 Industrial Metals - Industrial Silicon: Demand is weak, and the disk is weakly oscillating. The Si2506 closed at 8,800, up 20. The trend strength is - 1 [13][43][44]. - Polysilicon: The news is fermenting, and the disk is also weakly oscillating. The PS2506 closed at 37,780, down 610. The trend strength is - 1 [13][44]. 3.4 Energy Metals - Lithium Carbonate: The cost support is weakening. Attention should be paid to the purchasing demand under the high basis. The 2507 contract closed at 66,960, down 1,220. The trend strength is 0 [13][47][48]. 3.5 Ferrous Metals - Iron Ore: Expectations are fluctuating, and it is in a wide - range oscillation. The futures closed at 710.5, up 1.5. The trend strength is 0 [13][51][52]. - Rebar: The expectation of production cuts is rising, and there is a short - term rebound. The RB2510 closed at 3,129, up 19. The trend strength is 1 [13][54][55]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: The expectation of production cuts is rising, and there is a short - term rebound. The HC2510 closed at 3,237, up 27. The trend strength is 1 [13][54][55]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon: It is oscillating at a low level. The硅铁2506 closed at 5648, up 8. The trend strength is 0 [13][59]. - Manganese Ferrosilicon: It is oscillating at a low level. The锰硅2506 closed at 5746, up 4. The trend strength is 0 [13][59]. - Coke: It is affected by production - cut news and is in a wide - range oscillation. The J2509 closed at 1562, down 4. The trend strength is 0 [13][62]. - Coking Coal: It is affected by production - cut news and is in a wide - range oscillation. The JM2509 closed at 947, down 9. The trend strength is 0 [13][62]. - Steam Coal: The rigid demand has limited impact, and it is weakly oscillating. The动力煤ZC2505 had no trading yesterday. The trend strength is 0 [13][66][67]. 3.6 Building Materials - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable. The FG509 closed at 1122, down 0.53%. The trend strength is 0 [13][70][71]. 3.7 Chemicals - Para - Xylene (PX): The processing fee is expanding. It is recommended to go long on PX and short on SC. Short - term rebound, medium - term pressure. The 28 - day PX valuation was 758 US dollars/ton, up 6 US dollars. The trend strength is 0 [13][78][80]. - PTA: It is recommended for month - spread reverse arbitrage. Short - term rebound, medium - term pressure. Go long on PTA and short on MEG. The trend strength is 0 [13][78][81]. - MEG: Go long on PTA and short on MEG. Do not chase the month - spread. The trend strength is 0 [13][76][81]. - Rubber: It is oscillating. The trend strength is not provided in the text [13][82].