对二甲苯：加工费扩张，PTA：月差反套

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers trend - strength ratings for individual commodities: - PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, PP, methanol, urea, LPG, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, short - fiber, and bottle - chip trend strengths are rated 0 (neutral) [10][11][13][17][20][21][30][39][56][60][64][74][80][87][89][91] - LLDPE,烧碱,苯乙烯, PVC trend strengths are rated - 1 (weakly bearish) [35][46][65][85] - 纯碱 trend strength is rated 1 (weakly bullish) [72] 2. Report's Core View - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy and chemical commodities, including market fundamentals, price trends, and trading strategies. It considers factors such as supply - demand relationships, plant maintenance, trade policies, and cost changes to evaluate the short - and medium - term trends of each commodity. 3. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - PX: Short - term rebound, medium - term pressure. Low processing fees lead to more overseas plant maintenance, and Asian PX operating rate drops to 68.6%. May is a de - stocking period, and new plants are expected to be put into operation in June, with processing fees likely to expand. Strategy: long PX short SC [10] - PTA: Short - term rebound, medium - term pressure. Sino - US tariff easing improves terminal demand expectations, and polyester sales improve. However, PTA and PX plant maintenance is concentrated, and the basis and spread are at a high level. Strategy: long PTA short MEG, avoid chasing the basis and spread [11] - MEG: Long PTA short MEG. The number of warehouse receipts is small, and there may be a positive spread arbitrage in the delivery month. Pay attention to the 9 - 1 reverse spread for the far - month contracts [11] Rubber - It is expected to trade sideways. The trading volume and open interest of rubber futures decreased, and the inventory in Qingdao decreased slightly. The supply and demand fundamentals are relatively stable [12][13][14][15] Synthetic Rubber - It will oscillate in a pattern with limited drivers. The cost of butadiene is expected to support the price, and the supply of butadiene is expected to increase. The demand for synthetic rubber has increased, and the inventory is at a high level year - on - year. The current fundamentals have a neutral impact on synthetic rubber [17][18][20] Asphalt - De - stocking continues, and crude oil prices decline slightly. The weekly production of domestic asphalt decreased, and both factory and social inventories decreased. The trend is neutral [21][30][31] LLDPE - Short - term oscillation, long - term pressure. Trade wars and new capacity additions bring supply - demand imbalances, and the demand for downstream products is weak. Strategy: bearish on polyethylene profit [32][33][34] PP - Prices oscillate, and trading volume is average. The increase in PP futures has a limited impact on the spot market, and downstream pre - holiday stocking has ended. The trend is neutral [38][39] 烧碱 - The medium - term trend is weak. Trade wars and seasonal factors affect demand, and the supply side has high operating rates. Strategy: short 06 and 07 contracts, 6 - 9 reverse spread [41][43][44] Paper Pulp - It is expected to oscillate weakly. The price of paper pulp futures decreased, and the market is divided. The port inventory is high, and the market sentiment is bearish. Strategy: pay attention to port de - stocking and South American policies [47][48][49] Logs - Weakly oscillate. The trading volume and open interest of log futures decreased, and the expected arrival of coniferous logs decreased. The trend is neutral [51][53][55] Methanol - Oscillate. The spot price of methanol is weak, and the port inventory decreased last week. Geopolitical issues and MTO operating rates affect the medium - term trend [56][57][59] Urea - Factories promote sales before the holiday, and trading volume improves. Pay attention to the sustainability of the improvement. The inventory of urea enterprises increased, and the futures price rebounded after the spot price stabilized [62][63][64] Styrene - Weakly oscillate. The supply of pure benzene increases, and the demand decreases. The downstream demand for styrene has resilience, but the terminal default risk is increasing [65][66][69] Soda Ash - The spot market changes little. The operation of soda ash plants is stable, and downstream demand is stable. The market is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [70][72] LPG - As the delivery approaches, the structure continues to strengthen. The prices of LPG futures increased, and the operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation decreased. The trend is neutral [74][80][81] PVC - Weakly oscillate. The supply of PVC is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is limited. High production and high inventory structures are difficult to change in the short term [84][85] Fuel Oil - Weakly oscillate, and short - term fluctuations narrow. Low - sulfur fuel oil is stronger than high - sulfur fuel oil in the short term, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils rebounds slightly [87] Short - fiber and Bottle - chip - Short - fiber and bottle - chip are expected to rebound following raw materials. For bottle - chip, short the processing fees on rallies. The trading volume of short - fiber futures increased, and the sales of polyester bottle - chip plants improved [89][90]