软商品日报：全球贸易环境拖累棉价，短期保持观望-20250429

Report Investment Ratings - Sugar: Sideways [1] - Cotton: Sideways [1] Core Views - In the 2024/25 season, sugar mills in major producing areas except Yunnan have started to finish crushing, and a restorative increase in sugar production is a foregone conclusion. Holiday consumption during May Day has boosted sugar demand and supported stable sugar prices. Internationally, sugar production in Brazil for the 2025/26 season is gradually ramping up, but due to weather factors, sugar production is uncertain, and international sugar prices are expected to weaken sideways in the short term. Attention should be paid to the planting and growth of domestic sugarcane and sugar beets, as well as the progress of sugar production in Brazil [1]. - Due to the US tariff hikes on Chinese exports, China's textile and clothing exports have slowed down, with consumption decreasing by 200,000 tons to 7.6 million tons and imports also decreasing by 200,000 tons to 1.5 million tons. Recently, high temperatures in most parts of Xinjiang have been generally favorable for cotton sowing [1]. Data Summary Price Data - External Market Quotes: On April 27 - 28, 2025, the price of US sugar decreased from $18.16 to $17.83, a decline of 1.82%; the price of US cotton decreased from $68.7 to $67.56, a decline of 1.66% [3]. - Spot Prices: On April 27 - 28, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning increased from 6,210 to 6,220, a rise of 0.16%; the price of sugar in Kunming increased from 6,000 to 6,070, a rise of 1.17%; the cotton index 328 decreased from 3,281 to 3,280, a decline of 0.07%; the price of cotton in Xinjiang remained unchanged at 14,000 [3]. - Price Spreads: From April 27 - 28, 2025, SR01 - 05 spread decreased from -343 to -362, a change of 5.54%; SR05 - 09 spread increased from 201 to 212, a change of 5.47%; SR09 - 01 spread increased from 142 to 150, a change of 5.63%; CF01 - 05 spread decreased from 500 to 480, a decline of 4.00%; CF05 - 09 spread decreased from -265 to -275, a change of 3.77%; CF09 - 01 spread increased from -235 to -205, a decline of 12.77% [3]. - Basis: From April 27 - 28, 2025, the basis of sugar 01 increased from 168 to 243, a rise of 44.64%; the basis of sugar 05 increased from -175 to -119, a decline of 32.00%; the basis of sugar 09 increased from 26 to 93, a rise of 257.69%; the basis of cotton 01 increased from 1,009 to 1,089, a rise of 7.93%; the basis of cotton 05 increased from 1,509 to 1,569, a rise of 3.98%; the basis of cotton 09 increased from 1,244 to 1,294, a rise of 4.02% [3]. - Import Prices: On April 27 - 28, 2025, the price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 80.55 [3]. - Profit Margins: On April 27 - 28, 2025, the import profit of sugar remained unchanged at 1,295 [3]. Option Data - The implied volatility of SR509C6000 is 0.1097, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying SR509 is 8.88; the implied volatility of SR509P6000 is 0.1084 [3]. - The implied volatility of CF509C13000 is 0.1271, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying CF509 is 11.77; the implied volatility of CF509P13000 is 0.1281 [3]. Warehouse Receipt Data - On April 27 - 28, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 28,756; the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 10,555 to 10,479, a decline of 0.72% [3].