Soochow Securities·2025-04-29 01:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for Qingdao Beer is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that Qingdao Beer has crossed the pressure point in Q1 2025, with expectations for volume and price to accelerate in the future [8] - The company reported a revenue of 10.446 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.91%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.710 billion yuan, up 7.08% year-on-year [8] - The report highlights that the sales volume in Q1 2025 increased by 3.53% to 2.261 million tons, with expectations for marginal acceleration in sales growth in Q2 and Q3 due to low base effects [8] - The gross margin improved, and the net profit margin continued to rise, reaching 16.64% in Q1 2025, an increase of 0.65 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The report emphasizes that Qingdao Beer is a quality stock with both offensive and defensive characteristics, benefiting from restaurant recovery and management strengthening [8] Financial Forecasts - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is updated to 4.845 billion, 5.350 billion, and 5.736 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 22, 20, and 18 times [8] - The report provides detailed financial projections, including total revenue and net profit growth rates, with expected revenue of 33.614 billion yuan in 2025, a 4.59% year-on-year increase [9]