生猪：阶段性去库开启

Report Overview - Report Date: April 29, 2025 [1] - Title: "Pigs: Phase-out of Inventory Initiated" [1] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - After the Tomb-Sweeping Festival, the spot price stopped falling, second-round fattening started, and state reserve purchases supported the downstream. In April, the spot price was still supported, and the near-month contracts traded based on the logic of closing the basis last week. However, the enthusiasm for high-price second-round fattening cooled, the price spread between fat and lean pigs was inverted, group sales of piglets decreased, pen pressure increased slightly, and a phase-out of inventory began, weakening the sentiment of near-month contracts. The macro sentiment cooled, and the trading logic switched to the industrial logic. Attention should be paid to far-month arbitrage, and stop-loss and take-profit should be noted. The short-term support level for the LH2505 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [5] Summary by Directory 1. Pig Fundamental Data - Spot Prices: The Henan spot price is 14,850 yuan/ton with a year-on-year increase of 50 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 14,400 yuan/ton with no year-on-year change; the Guangdong spot price is 15,640 yuan/ton with no year-on-year change [3] - Futures Prices: The prices of contracts LH2505, LH2507, and LH2509 are 13,975 yuan/ton, 13,485 yuan/ton, and 14,130 yuan/ton respectively, with year-on-year decreases of 140 yuan/ton, 55 yuan/ton, and 20 yuan/ton [3] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of LH2505 increased by 1,019 hands to 2,834 hands, and the open interest decreased by 975 hands to 3,222 hands; the trading volume of LH2507 decreased by 259 hands to 5,231 hands, and the open interest decreased by 212 hands to 33,150 hands; the trading volume of LH2509 increased by 240 hands to 27,475 hands, and the open interest increased by 1,071 hands to 73,369 hands [3] - Price Spreads: The basis of LH2505, LH2507, and LH2509 are 875 yuan/ton, 1365 yuan/ton, and 720 yuan/ton respectively, with year-on-year increases of 190 yuan/ton, 105 yuan/ton, and 70 yuan/ton; the 5 - 7 spread is 490 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 85 yuan/ton; the 7 - 9 spread is -645 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 35 yuan/ton [3] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is -1, indicating a relatively bearish view. The range of trend intensity is an integer within [-2, 2], with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4]