冠通期货资讯早间报-20250429

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Policy implementation will be focused in the second quarter, and China is well - prepared for the impact of US tariff measures [8] - The People's Bank of China will use a moderately loose monetary policy, including potential reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, to support the economy [8] - China's energy, food supply is sufficient, and the impact of reducing imports from the US is limited [16][28] Summary by Category Overnight Night - Market Trends - Domestic Commodity Futures: Most closed down. Energy - chemical products mostly declined, with butadiene rubber down 1.18%, crude oil down 1.15%, etc.; black - series mostly fell, with coking coal down 1.57%; agricultural products generally dropped, while basic metals showed mixed results, and precious metals rose [2] - International Precious Metals Futures: Generally closed up, with COMEX gold futures up 1.71% at $3354.80 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 0.20% at $33.40 per ounce [3] - International Oil Prices: Weakened, with US crude futures down 1.79% at $61.89 per barrel and Brent crude futures down 1.87% at $64.57 per barrel [4] - London Basic Metals: Most rose, such as LME lead up 1.65% at $1977.00 per ton [4] - CBOT Agricultural Products Futures: Most closed down, except for soybeans up 0.19% at 1061.25 cents per bushel [4] Macro - Information - Policy Announcements: Policy implementation will peak in Q2; the central bank will use monetary tools and introduce incremental policies; relevant departments will promote project construction and address capital shortages [8][9] - Diplomatic Responses: There was no recent call between the two heads of state, and no negotiations on tariffs between China and the US [8] - Industry Data: As of March 2025, there were 151 futures companies in China; Shanghai's export container freight index declined [13][14] - International News: The US and Ukraine may sign a mineral framework agreement; tensions between India and Pakistan escalated [14] Energy - Chemical Futures - Supply Situation: Domestic energy supply is sufficient, and reducing imports from the US has no impact; inventories of some products like styrene and natural rubber changed [16] - Company Response: Yuanxing Energy's Alxa natural soda project phase II is progressing as planned [16] Metal Futures - Gold Market: China increased its gold reserves in Q1; domestic gold ETF holdings grew significantly; Hong Kong's gold exports to the mainland changed [19][20] - Other Metals: The global refined copper market is expected to have a supply surplus in 2025 and 2026; SHFE is soliciting casting aluminum alloy futures delivery products [19][21] Black - Series Futures - Policy Measures: Promote automobile consumption, stabilize the capital and real estate markets, and support the real economy [23] - Iron Ore Data: China's iron ore arrivals and global shipments changed in a certain period; Brazil's iron ore shipping data showed an increase [23][24][26] Agricultural Product Futures - Supply Security: Reducing US agricultural imports has little impact on China's food supply [28] - Market Data: Prices of pigs, corn, and other products changed; soybean processing, inventory, and trading data were reported; overseas agricultural production and shipping data were also provided [28][29][32] Financial Markets Commodities - Commodity Futures: Domestic and international commodity futures showed various trends; gold reserves and consumption data in China were reported; rice prices in Japan hit a record high [39][40][44] Bonds - Bond Market: Treasury futures mostly rose; convertible bond indices fell; government bond issuance data was reported; yields of US and European bonds changed; some bond events occurred [45][46] Foreign Exchange - Exchange Rates: The on - shore and offshore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar changed; major RMB exchange rate indices rose; the impact of US bond fluctuations on China's foreign exchange reserves is limited [49] Upcoming Events - Domestic: The People's Bank of China has reverse - repurchase maturities; many companies will release financial reports [52] - International: Central bank officials will give speeches; some international meetings will be held; the Japanese market is closed for a holiday [52][54]