国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20250429

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives trend intensities for individual commodities, which can be used as a reference for investment decisions. 2. Core Views - Precious Metals: Gold shows risk preference recovery, and silver stabilizes and rebounds. The trend intensities for both are neutral [5][6]. - Base Metals: Copper prices are supported by inventory reduction; aluminum is in a range - bound oscillation; zinc is in range consolidation; lead has a narrow - range oscillation; nickel may have a narrow - range oscillation with converging upside and downside space; stainless steel has a game between cost and negative feedback on the disk; tin has a slight repair; industrial silicon has a weak oscillation due to weak demand; and alumina is still seeking a bottom [2][10][13]. - Energy and Chemicals: Crude - related products like fuel oil and asphalt have different trends; PTA, MEG, and other chemicals have specific trading strategies such as PTA's month - spread reverse arbitrage and going long on PTA and short on MEG [2][64][66]. - Agricultural Products: Corn oscillates strongly; sugar oscillates weakly; cotton's rebound is restricted by demand; and other agricultural products have their own supply - demand and price trends [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - Gold and Silver: Gold's risk preference rebounds, and silver stabilizes and recovers. Yesterday, the closing price of沪金2506 was 780.04 with a - 0.91% daily change, and沪银2506 was 8168 with a - 1.35% daily change. The trend intensities for both are 0 [5][6]. Base Metals - Copper: Inventory reduction supports prices. The closing price of沪铜主力合约 was 77,580 with a 0.18% daily increase. The trend intensity is 0 [10]. - Aluminum and Alumina: Aluminum oscillates within a range, and alumina continues to seek a bottom. The closing price of沪铝主力合约 was 19935, and沪氧化铝主力合约 was 2862. The trend intensities for both are 0 [13]. - Zinc: It is in range consolidation. The closing price of沪锌主力 was 22520 with a - 1.01% daily change. The trend intensity is 0 [16]. - Lead: It has a narrow - range oscillation. The closing price of沪铅主力 was 17005 with a 0.35% daily increase. The trend intensity is 0 [19]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Nickel may have a narrow - range oscillation, and stainless steel has a game between cost and negative feedback. The closing price of沪镍主力 was 124,690, and不锈钢主力 was 12,765. The trend intensities for both are 0 [21][22]. - Tin: It has a slight repair. The closing price of沪锡主力 was 262,840 with a 1.26% daily increase. The trend intensity is 0 [25][26]. Energy and Chemicals - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon has a weak oscillation due to weak demand, and polysilicon is also weak due to news fermentation. The closing price of Si2506 was 8,800, and PS2506 was 37,780. The trend intensities for both are - 1 [32][33]. - Carbonate Lithium: Cost support weakens, and attention should be paid to purchasing demand under high basis. The closing price of 2507 contract was 66,960. The trend intensity is 0 [36][37]. - Iron Ore: Expectations are volatile, and it has a wide - range oscillation. The closing price of 12509 was 710.5 with a 0.21% daily increase. The trend intensity is 0 [40][41]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The expectation of production restriction increases, and there is a short - term rebound. The closing price of RB2510 was 3,129 with a 0.61% daily increase, and HC2510 was 3,237 with a 0.84% daily increase. The trend intensities for both are 1 [43][44]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silico - Manganese: They are in low - level oscillations. The closing price of硅铁2506 was 5648, and锰硅2506 was 5746. The trend intensities for both are 0 [48]. - Coke and Coking Coal: They are affected by production - restriction news and have wide - range oscillations. The closing price of JM2509 was 947 with a - 0.94% daily change, and J2509 was 1562 with a - 0.26% daily change. The trend intensities for both are 0 [51]. - Steam Coal: The rigid demand has limited impact, and it oscillates weakly. The trend intensity is 0 [55]. - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable. The closing price of FG509 was 1122 with a - 0.53% daily change. The trend intensity is 0 [59][60]. - PX, PTA, and MEG: PX's processing fee expands; PTA has a month - spread reverse arbitrage; and the strategy is to go long on PTA and short on MEG. The closing price of PX主力 was 6230, PTA主力 was 4400, and MEG主力 was 4160. The trend intensities for all are 0 [64][66]. - Rubber: It oscillates. The closing price of the rubber主力 was 14,730 (daily) and 14,735 (night). The trend intensity is 0 [70][72]. Agricultural Products - Grains and Oils: Corn oscillates strongly; sugar oscillates weakly; soybean meal may stop falling gradually; and other products have their own price trends [2][4]. - Livestock and Poultry: Eggs have a weak oscillation, and pigs start a phased inventory reduction [2][4].