HIKVISION(002415) 国信证券·2025-04-29 02:05Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hikvision (002415.SZ) is "Outperform the Market" [6]. Core Views - The company is experiencing a mild recovery in revenue and net profit in Q1 2025, with revenue reaching 18.53 billion yuan (YoY +4.0%) and net profit at 1.926 billion yuan (YoY +9.44%) [1]. - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with a strategic shift in its domestic business to enhance profitability [3]. - The innovation and overseas business segments are showing strong growth, contributing to over 50% of total revenue in 2024 [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 92.496 billion yuan (YoY +3.53%) and a net profit of 11.977 billion yuan (YoY -15.1%), with a gross margin of 43.83% [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a net cash flow from operating activities increasing by 56.19% [1]. Business Segments - The overseas revenue in 2024 was 31.895 billion yuan, up 10.1%, accounting for 34.48% of total revenue, with significant growth in non-video products [2]. - The innovation business generated 22.484 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 21.2% and representing 24% of total revenue, with notable growth in various segments such as robotics and automotive electronics [2]. Domestic Market Adjustments - The domestic PBG revenue was 13.467 billion yuan in 2024, down 12.29%, affected by local fiscal pressures [3]. - The EBG revenue was 17.651 billion yuan, down 1.09%, while SMBG revenue was 11.971 billion yuan, down 5.58% [3]. - The company is actively managing inventory levels with distributors to promote healthy channel development [3]. Future Outlook - The company expects to maintain operational resilience and long-term growth driven by industry digitalization, with revised net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 13.237 billion, 14.517 billion, and 16.664 billion yuan respectively [4]. - The projected PE ratios for 2025-2027 are 20, 18, and 16 times [4].