中国石化（600028）：传统业务盈利承压，非油业务现亮点

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [9][10] Core Views - The company's Q1 revenue was 735.4 billion RMB, showing a decrease of 7% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 4% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 13.3 billion RMB, which is a decrease of 28% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 119% year-on-year [1] - The report highlights that the traditional business faces profit pressure, while non-oil business shows promising performance. The chemical sector has reduced losses, and the marketing segment's non-oil business has exceeded expectations [1][4][5] - The report maintains a positive outlook for the company's profitability recovery in the refining industry post-2025, supported by its integrated advantages and transformation into new materials [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 oil production was 69.5 million barrels, down 1.2% year-on-year, with an average oil price of 71.5 USD/barrel, down 5.2%. Natural gas production increased by 5.1% to 368.4 billion cubic feet [2] - The refining segment's Q1 operating profit dropped significantly by 44.3 billion RMB to 19.8 billion RMB due to high oil inventory costs, with refining margins narrowing to 6.2 USD/barrel, down 13.9% year-on-year [3] - The marketing segment's total domestic refined oil sales decreased by 5.3% year-on-year, leading to a profit drop of 39.8 billion RMB to 39.7 billion RMB [4] Chemical Sector - The chemical segment's production of ethylene, synthetic resin, and fiber monomers increased by 18%, 17%, and 27% year-on-year, respectively. The segment's losses were reduced by 4.7 billion RMB year-on-year [5] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 53.9 billion RMB, 58.8 billion RMB, and 61.6 billion RMB, respectively, with EPS projected at 0.44, 0.48, and 0.51 RMB [6] - The target prices are set at 6.82 RMB for A-shares and 4.73 HKD for H-shares, reflecting a valuation of 15.5x PE for 2025 [6]