关注特朗普执政百日演讲

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for commodities and stock index futures is overall neutral, pending fundamental verification [5] Core Viewpoints - The market should focus on Trump's 100 - day governance speech, and the follow - up impact of tariff events on the economy, as well as the potential for a stagflation macro - environment overseas [1][3] - The April Politburo meeting set a positive tone, and China's economy continues to show a stable and upward trend. Incremental policies will be introduced by the end of June [2] - The impact of tariff events on market sentiment has subsided, and attention should now turn to their impact on the economy [3] - For commodities, focus on the transmission of fundamentals and long - term stagflation allocation [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - During the May Day holiday from May 1st to May 5th, there are important data and events such as China's April PMI, initial GDP values of Europe and the US in Q1, the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision, etc. Domestic stock indices show significant holiday seasonal characteristics, rising in the first 20 working days after the holiday. For commodities, focus on the impact of travel consumption on crude oil prices and other factors [1] Macroeconomic Situation - The April Politburo meeting stated that the economy is showing a positive trend, and more proactive macro - policies will be implemented. China's Q1 GDP increased by 5.4% year - on - year. The NDRC will introduce measures to stabilize employment and the economy, with incremental policies to be launched by the end of June [2] Tariff Events - Trump's tariff policies have been inconsistent. The US has imposed high anti - dumping and anti - subsidy taxes on Southeast Asian countries. There are chaotic signals on China's tariff issues. Some countries like South Korea and India have reached preliminary agreements with the US, and the US will prioritize negotiations with 18 trade partners in the next two months [3] Commodity Market - For commodities, pay attention to the transmission of fundamentals. For industrial products like black and non - ferrous metals, beware of the emotional impact from US stock adjustments. For agricultural products, the probability of price increases due to tariffs is higher. Crude oil supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term, and be cautious about the emotional and callback risks of gold [4] Important News - China will introduce measures to stabilize employment and the economy, and some incremental policies will be launched by the end of June. There are various international news including tariff negotiations between different countries and regions, and news about the Russia - Ukraine conflict [7][8]