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山东烧碱市场调研报告
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-04-29 02:24

Group 1: Report Core View - The overall comprehensive profit of caustic soda was relatively high in the first quarter of this year, and enterprises had a weak willingness to reduce production through maintenance, mostly maintaining high operation rates [4][10] - The cost of caustic soda mainly consists of raw salt and electricity prices. After the Spring Festival, the price of raw salt decreased slightly. With the continuous decline of coal prices, the production cost of caustic soda for enterprises with self - supplied power plants may further decrease, and the expectation of loss - induced production reduction is difficult to occur [4][10] - The downstream terminal demand was significantly weaker than the same period last year. The weak demand led to a continuous decline in caustic soda prices. The demand for alumina also declined due to cost - related maintenance and production reduction of some alumina enterprises, and the short - term stocking demand for caustic soda in alumina plants was weak [4][10] Group 2: Upstream Device Maintenance and Production Reduction - Upstream production enterprises generally conduct a large - scale routine maintenance every 2 - 3 years and a small - scale production line rotation inspection every year. In the first quarter of this year, due to high comprehensive profits, most enterprises maintained high operation rates [4][10] Group 3: Cost and Profitability - The cost of caustic soda is mainly composed of raw salt and electricity prices. After the Spring Festival, the price of raw salt decreased slightly, with the price of raw salt in surveyed chlor - alkali enterprises ranging from 280 - 300 yuan/ton (delivered). The cost of self - supplied power plants is lower, and with the decline of coal prices, the production cost of caustic soda may further decrease [4][10] Group 4: Downstream Demand - The downstream terminal demand was significantly weaker than last year. The weak demand led to a continuous decline in caustic soda prices. Downstream enterprises and traders were cautious in purchasing, mainly for rigid demand. Non - aluminum terminal inventories were generally low, showing a "buy on rising, not on falling" mentality [4][10] - Recently, the price of alumina was low, and some alumina enterprises reduced production due to cost issues, dragging down the rigid demand for caustic soda. Alumina plants had high inventories of caustic soda raw materials, and the short - term stocking demand was weak [4][10] Group 5: Specific Situation of Surveyed Enterprises Caustic Soda Enterprise A - It has a designed capacity of 150,000 tons and an actual capacity of 200,000 tons, with chloroacetic acid as the downstream chlorine - consuming product and some liquid chlorine sold externally [11] - It purchases industrial electricity externally, with a production electricity price of over 0.6 yuan, a delivered price of raw sea salt of 300 yuan/ton, and a comprehensive production cost of about 2,400 yuan/ton [11] - The current direct sales ratio is about 60% - 70%, with a target of 80% [12] Caustic Soda Enterprise B - It has a capacity of 200,000 tons, with CPE as the downstream chlorine - consuming product and a small amount of liquid chlorine sold externally [13] - It has a storage capacity of 15,000 tons, a normal inventory level of 5,000 tons, and an inventory of about 2,000 - 3,000 tons during the survey [14] - It purchases electricity externally, with a delivered price of sea salt for production of 250 - 260 yuan/ton and a full production cost of caustic soda between 2,300 - 2,400 yuan [14] - It is expected that liquid chlorine will bottom out and rebound, with a minimum price of - 350 yuan. In April, there were few export orders, and the export outlook for May was not optimistic [16] - During the survey, it was believed that the spot price of caustic soda could still rise, but the duration might be short. Qingdao Bay planned to officially put into operation 200,000 tons in May, and Jinling planned to start the 50% caustic soda device on April 19th [17] Enterprise C (Caustic Soda Flakes Trader) - It is a secondary trader of caustic soda flakes, mainly sourcing from Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi. During the survey, the social inventory of caustic soda flakes in Shandong was low due to traders' pessimistic expectations [18] - The freight from Inner Mongolia to Shandong is 240 - 260 yuan/ton excluding tax, and from Xinjiang to Shandong is 480 yuan/ton. Shandong's caustic soda flakes mainly come from Inner Mongolia [18] - It has a short - term bearish view on the market, and the price of caustic soda flakes in Inner Mongolia was 3,250 yuan/ton during the survey, with an expected further decline [18] Enterprise D (Liquid Chlorine Trader) - It is a liquid chlorine trader. Due to the high requirements for production and transportation, the threshold for liquid chlorine traders is high [19] - The sales radius is generally within 300 kilometers. Liquid chlorine is usually shipped on the same day or the next day without inventory [19] - It is expected that liquid chlorine will not decline too much in the short term and may rebound to 1 - 100 yuan/ton, with a fluctuation range between - 300 and 200 yuan/ton. The liquid chlorine markets in Shandong and Jiangsu are differentiated, and summer is a relatively off - season for small liquid chlorine - consuming enterprises [21]