下游压价采购，铜价维持震荡格局

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the copper industry is not explicitly provided in the report. However, the report suggests a "buy on dips" hedging strategy, indicating a generally positive outlook. [7] 2. Core View of the Report - The copper price is in a volatile and strengthening pattern due to factors such as lower TC prices for smelting enterprises and a more relaxed attitude towards tariff policies and the Fed Chairman's stance. It is recommended to mainly adopt a buy - on - dips hedging strategy, while arbitrage is on hold and a short put option at 74,000 yuan/ton is suggested. [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Directory 3.1 Market News and Key Data 3.1.1 Futures Market - On April 28, 2025, the opening price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 77,510 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 77,580 yuan/ton, a 0.18% increase from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 77,740 yuan/ton and closed at 77,630 yuan/ton, a 0.34% increase from the afternoon close. [1] 3.1.2 Spot Market - The spot trading sentiment was active. Near the May Day holiday, the slightly lower price led downstream to pick up goods actively. The sellers' prices were the same as last week, and low - priced goods had more transactions. Downstream continued to bargain for purchases. [2] 3.2 Key Information Summary 3.2.1 Macro and Geopolitical Aspects - The US Treasury increased its Q2 borrowing scale forecast to $514 billion. The "X - day" for the debt ceiling issue will be announced soon. Putin declared a 72 - hour cease - fire during the Victory Day celebration. The US and Ukraine may sign a mineral agreement this week. The Chinese central bank said it would cut reserve requirements and interest rates in a timely manner and create new structural monetary policy tools. [3] 3.2.2 Mine End - Panama's president declared that the closed Cobre copper mine "belongs to the country," and restarting negotiations must be government - led. The closure in 2023 caused a 2% drop in Panama's GDP, and First Quantum's stock price fell 3%. Southern Copper's Q1 2025 copper production was 24.2 tons, up from 24.0679 tons in the same period last year. The Antamina copper mine is gradually resuming operations. [4] 3.2.3 Smelting and Import - China Resources Recycling Group Non - ferrous Metals Investment Co., Ltd. was established to address resource shortages and industrial fragmentation. As of the week ending April 22, the net long position of COMEX copper futures held by funds rebounded to 24,765 lots. [5] 3.2.4 Consumption - The downstream processing enterprises' procurement strategies were conservative. Pre - holiday stocking demand supported the spot market, and some enterprises replenished inventory at low prices. The supply of recycled copper raw materials was tight, and non - deliverable brands and non - standard copper materials had active transactions. [6] 3.2.5 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 25.00 tons to 202,800 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 4,704 tons to 36,884 tons. On April 28, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 15.51 million tons, a decrease of 2.66 million tons from the previous week. [6]