五矿期货贵金属日报-20250429

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The expansion of the US fiscal deficit is both expected by the market and evident in reality, which is a bullish factor for gold prices [2]. - The weakening US economic data shows the impact of tariff policies on the overall US economy [2]. - The market still expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the June, July, September, and December FOMC meetings [2]. - Maintain the idea of buying gold on dips after the price stabilizes, but there is still room for the short - term price to weaken. The start of the silver market needs further dovish statements from the Fed [3]. - The reference operating range for the Shanghai Gold main contract is 748 - 836 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver main contract is 7804 - 8444 yuan/kilogram [3]. Summary by Related Content Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold rose 1.57% to 793.68 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver rose 0.48% to 8244.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Gold rose 0.01% to 3348.20 dollars/ounce, COMEX Silver rose 0.09% to 33.35 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.29%, and the US dollar index was 99.05 [2]. - Various precious metal - related data such as Au(T + D), London Gold, SPDR Gold ETF holdings, etc., showed different degrees of changes [4]. Market Outlook - The US Treasury increased the borrowing scale forecast for the second quarter to 514 billion dollars, higher than the February estimate of 391 billion dollars, mainly due to a low cash balance and reduced expected cash inflows [2]. - The US economic data released yesterday weakened, with the April Dallas Fed Business Activity Index at - 35.8, significantly lower than the expected - 14.1 and the previous value of - 16.3 [2]. Historical Relationship and Strategy - International gold prices are positively correlated with the US fiscal deficit level, and silver prices rise strongly when the Fed's easing expectations are concentratedly released [3]. - Given the short - term unchangeable expansion of the US fiscal deficit and monetary policy easing, maintain the strategy of buying gold on dips after price stabilization, and wait for the Fed's further easing statements for the silver market [3].