Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillation, with suggested cautious trading within a range. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate and weaken. Nickel prices lack upward momentum due to oversupply, with a suggestion to wait and see. Tin prices are expected to have increased volatility, with suggested interval trading. [2][3][5][6] Summary by Metal Copper - As of April 28, the closing price of the SHFE copper main 06 contract dropped 0.08% to 77,580 yuan/ton. After the ECB's interest - rate cut and dovish remarks from some Fed officials, the market's expectation of a June interest - rate cut rose, weakening the negative impact of the Trump administration's tariff stance on copper prices. The copper concentrate spot market remained sluggish, with TC continuously hitting new lows. Despite high by - product prices supporting refined copper output, smelters' pressure is increasing. This week, inventory reduction accelerated, with the SHFE weekend inventory decreasing by 54,858 tons, the largest single - week decline since 2003. The peak demand season drove copper product output growth, with China's copper product output reaching 2.125 million tons in March, a new high for the same period in recent years. The upward space of copper prices is limited due to potential demand suppression and the negative impact of the trade war on global economic demand. [2] - In the spot market, domestic spot copper prices fell, and the market transaction was light. High premiums supported holders to hold prices, but downstream buyers were cautious. [7] - SHFE copper futures warehouse receipts decreased by 4,704 tons to 36,884 tons, and LME copper inventory decreased by 650 tons to 202,800 tons. [16] Aluminum - As of April 28, the closing price of the SHFE aluminum main 06 contract dropped 0.1% to 19,935 yuan/ton. The supply at the ore end improved, and prices declined. The weekly operating capacity of alumina increased by 150,000 tons to 87.3 million tons, and the national alumina inventory decreased by 26,000 tons to 3.423 million tons. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 15,000 tons to 44.089 million tons. The domestic downstream processing leading enterprises' operating rate increased by 0.15% to 62.52%. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased. However, due to the US tariffs, the upward trend of aluminum prices is difficult to sustain, and prices are expected to oscillate and weaken. [3] - In the spot market, the transaction was light. Holders tried to hold prices in the morning, but downstream buyers were mostly on the sidelines. In the afternoon, some downstream buyers made pre - holiday low - price purchases, driving sporadic transactions. [8] - The alumina spot market transaction was light, with prices stabilizing. Holders actively sold goods, but downstream electrolytic aluminum plants had limited operating capacity and mainly made rigid - demand purchases. [9] - SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1,902 tons to 72,590 tons, and LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 419,575 tons. [16] Nickel - As of April 28, the closing price of the SHFE nickel main 06 contract dropped 0.83% to 124,690 yuan/ton. The US April Markit composite PMI hit a 16 - month low, and Trump's attitude towards China's tariffs eased, leading to a recovery in market risk appetite. The Indonesian nickel usage tax rate policy was implemented this week, increasing the cost at the ore end. The pure nickel surplus situation remained, and the spot transaction was sluggish. The nickel - iron price was supported by the strong ore end, but the surplus pattern expanded. The 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production in April was 1.9075 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.04% and a year - on - year increase of 13.33%. The sulfuric acid nickel price was strong due to cost push, and the loss was repaired. Overall, due to the oversupply of nickel, the upward momentum is insufficient, and it is recommended to wait and see. [4][5] - In the spot market, as nickel prices fell, the willingness to make low - price inquiries and replenish inventory increased. [13] - SHFE nickel futures warehouse receipts decreased by 168 tons to 24,632 tons, and LME nickel inventory decreased by 1,044 tons to 201,426 tons. [16] Tin - As of April 28, the closing price of the SHFE tin main 05 contract dropped 0.63% to 260,590 yuan/ton. The spot supply was tight, supporting prices. In March, China's refined tin output was 18,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.5%. The import of tin concentrate in March was 3,466 metal tons, a year - on - year decrease of 42%. Indonesia's refined tin exports in March were 5,780 tons, a month - on - month increase of 47%. The semiconductor industry is expected to recover, and the inventory of domestic and foreign exchanges and domestic social inventory decreased by 409 tons. The tin ore supply is tight, but there are strong expectations for mine resumption. The price is expected to fluctuate more, and it is recommended to trade within the range of 250,000 - 273,000 yuan/ton for the SHFE tin 06 contract. [6] - In the spot market, downstream inquiries were cautious at the beginning of the week, and overall consumption needs further improvement. [14] - SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts decreased by 192 tons to 8,722 tons, and LME tin inventory increased by 35 tons to 2,845 tons. [16] Other Metals - Zinc: Spot zinc prices fell. The market was well - supplied due to imported goods. Holders were reluctant to lower prices due to high premiums, while downstream buyers pressured prices for purchases and were pessimistic about the future. [10] - Lead: Spot lead prices fell. As pre - May Day inventory replenishment was coming to an end, the spot transaction was light. [11][12]
有色金属日报-20250429
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-04-29 02:33