饲料养殖产业日报-20250429

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The overall supply of live pigs is increasing and shifting backward, causing downward pressure on prices. However, the futures market has already factored in the weak expectations, limiting the decline. Egg prices are expected to face a short - term supply - demand imbalance after the May Day holiday, and long - term supply is likely to increase. For oils, short - term prices have upward momentum, but long - term supply increases may lead to price fluctuations. The short - term price of soybean meal is expected to be weak, while the long - term is strong. Corn prices are expected to be stable with an upward trend, but the upside is limited [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Live Pigs - On April 29, the spot price of live pigs in Liaoning was 14.3 - 15 yuan/kg, up 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day; in Henan, it was 14.6 - 15.2 yuan/kg, up 0.1 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 14.2 - 14.5 yuan/kg, stable; in Guangdong, it was 15.4 - 16 yuan/kg, stable. In the short term, the supply - demand game intensifies, and prices fluctuate frequently. In the long term, from April to September 2024, supply increases, and the second quarter of 2025 still faces large supply pressure. The strategy is to sell out - of - the - money call options for contracts 07 and 09 at high prices [1]. Eggs - On April 29, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 3.1 yuan/jin, stable; in Beijing, it was 3.39 yuan/jin, down 0.18 yuan/jin. Short - term egg prices are affected by supply - demand factors, and there is a risk of decline after the May Day holiday. Long - term supply is expected to increase. The 06 contract is recommended to be held with a light position during the holiday, and contracts 08 and 09 are considered bearish [2]. Oils - On April 29, the US soybean oil main contract rose 1.53% to 50.46 cents/lb, and the Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 0.55% to 4058 ringgit/ton. Palm oil exports increased in April, but production also increased, and inventory is expected to rise. Domestic palm oil will face increased supply in the second quarter. Soybean oil has large supply pressure in the second quarter in China. Rapeseed oil has a tight supply in Canada, and domestic inventory is expected to decrease in the second quarter. Short - term prices are supported, but long - term supply increases may limit the upside [4][5][6]. Soybean Meal - On April 28, the US soybean 07 contract rose 3.25 cents to 1062.5 cents/bu. Short - term prices are expected to decline with increased supply, while long - term prices are expected to rise due to cost increases and weather factors. The 09 contract is recommended to be short - sold in the short term and long - bought in the long term [8]. Corn - On April 28, the purchase price of new corn at Jinzhou Port was 2230 yuan/ton, stable; the closing price was 2270 yuan/ton. The short - term spot price is supported, and the futures market fluctuates at a high level. In the long term, supply - demand tightness drives prices up, but the upside is limited. The strategy is to wait for a callback to buy [9]. Futures Market Overview - The report provides the prices, price changes, and other information of various futures and spot products on April 28 - 29, including CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, corn, etc [10].