长江期货棉纺策略日报-20250429

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cotton is expected to move in a volatile manner. Brazil's cotton planting in 2024 has ended, with a total output of 3.7 million tons and an expected output of 3.95 million tons in 2025, which exerts pressure on foreign cotton. The US trade war and inflation issues, along with China's deflation problem, may impact global cotton consumption. If the situation deteriorates, cotton prices may weaken further in the long - term; if the two countries reach an agreement, the situation may reverse [1]. - PTA is likely to have a short - term rebound. The suspension of tariff issues eases concerns about trade disputes, and there are issues in the Middle East and limited US crude oil production, so oil prices may rise before May Day. Supply - side maintenance and production cuts, along with good downstream polyester开工, lead to a tight market supply and a rise in spot basis [1]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. International crude oil prices are stabilizing, providing cost support. However, due to macro - environmental factors, bullish confidence is insufficient, and prices are expected to be under pressure [2][3]. - Short - fiber is rebounding from a low level. The strengthening of raw material prices and the easing of macro - sentiment support a short - term rebound, but poor terminal orders mean the long - term weakness is difficult to change [4]. - Sugar is in a volatile adjustment. In the international sugar market, short - term trade flow is tight, but there are expectations of increased production in Brazil's new season. In the domestic market, current inventory supports prices, but future supply pressure may limit the upside of futures prices [5]. - Apples are expected to strengthen in a volatile manner. Near the May Day holiday, cold - storage shipments are accelerating, inventory is at a five - year low, and prices are rising. However, attention should be paid to the new - season apple's fruit - setting situation and macro - risks [5][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Key Information - China will introduce measures to stabilize employment and the economy and promote high - quality development, including measures in employment support, foreign trade stability, consumption promotion, effective investment expansion, and creating a good development environment [7]. Fundamental Information Tracking of Each Variety PTA - As of April 28, the PTA spot price rose to 4,570 yuan/ton. Before the end of April, the offer for main - port delivery and warehouse receipts was around a premium of 15 or a discount of 2 to 05. In May, the main - port delivery for 09 had a premium of 80 - 140 in transactions. The industry's supply - demand and cost support are good, but the basis weakened in the afternoon [9]. - Last week, the average weekly PTA capacity utilization rate in China reached 80.04%, a significant increase compared to the previous week and the same period last year. Some devices restarted as scheduled [11]. Cotton - On April 28, the China Cotton Price Index (CC Index) was 14,244 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cotton yarn index (CY Index C32S) was 20,490 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. On April 28, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts were 12,439 (- 54) sheets [10]. - In March 2025, the retail sales of US clothing and clothing accessories increased year - on - year and month - on - month. In February 2025, the inventory increased year - on - year and decreased month - on - month, and the inventory - to - sales ratio increased [10]. - Recently, the cotton - growing areas in Argentina have generally cleared up. The picking progress in some main - producing areas is around 24% - 30%, and some areas have started processing, with centralized processing expected to begin in mid - May [10]. Ethylene Glycol - China's total ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate is 61.93%, with a slight decrease. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of integrated plants decreased, while that of coal - to - ethylene glycol increased [15]. - China's weekly ethylene glycol production was 549,700 tons, a slight increase. There were both maintenance and restart of devices, and demand in other industries declined slightly [15]. Short - fiber - As of the 24th, the weekly short - fiber production in China was 161,400 tons, an increase of 3.86% from the previous week, and the average capacity utilization rate increased [15]. - As of the 24th, the average polymerization cost of polyester short - fiber decreased slightly, and the industry's cash flow decreased significantly, with profits shrinking [15]. Sugar - An Indian industry insider expects the country's sugar exports in the 2024/25 season to be 60 - 700,000 tons, lower than the allowed amount [15]. - As of the week of April 23, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped increased [15]. - It is expected that in 2025, the sugar - beet planting area in Ukraine will decrease by 17% compared to 2024, leading to a significant decline in production and exports [15]. Apple - As of April 24, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas in China was 3.0998 million tons, a decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is at a near - five - year low [16]. - In Shandong and Shaanxi apple - producing areas, different grades of apple prices are provided [16].