宝城期货煤焦早报-20250429

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - For both coking coal and coke, the short - term and medium - term views are "oscillation", and the intraday views are "oscillation and weakening". The reference view for both is an "oscillation approach" [1] Group 3: Summary by Variety Coking Coal (JM) - Price and Cost: The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port is 1035.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat, and the equivalent futures warehouse receipt cost is about 1008 yuan/ton [5] - Supply Situation: In March and April, the coal mine safety supervision environment in Shanxi was relatively stable, and the output remained at a high level. In March, Shanxi's raw coal output increased by 19.1% year - on - year, and in April, it continued to operate at a high level. In April, the Mongolian coal import volume improved significantly compared with March. The supply is still loose, and the fundamentals are overall bearish [5] - Market Performance: The supply - side pressure is high, the market sentiment is bearish, the futures are oscillating at a low level, and it drags down the coke trend. Attention should be paid to the introduction of domestic demand - boosting policies [5] Coke (J) - Price and Cost: The latest quotation of quasi - first - class flat - price coke at Rizhao Port is 1440 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat, and the equivalent futures warehouse receipt cost is about 1583 yuan/ton [6] - Supply - Demand Situation: This week, coke continued the pattern of increasing both supply and demand, and the increase in the demand side was obvious. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and the futures main contract oscillates at a low level [6] - Macro Factors: In April, Sino - US trade frictions were repeated, and there is strong uncertainty about the future development of tariff disputes. China's domestic demand - boosting policies are expected to be introduced, and the Politburo meeting on April 25 proposed to implement more proactive and effective macro - policies [6] - Market Outlook: Although the short - term fundamentals are good, there is an expectation that hot metal production will peak and decline, and the coking coal supply is loose. The market sentiment is pessimistic. It is expected that coke futures will oscillate at a low level in the near future. Attention should be paid to the changes in domestic and international macro - atmosphere [6]