Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by factors such as tariffs, geopolitical risks, and macro - policy adjustments. Different industries show various trends, and investors are advised to adopt different strategies according to the characteristics of each industry [6][9][11] Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - Treasury Bonds: On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed higher. The central bank conducted 279 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 103 billion yuan. The external environment is favorable for treasury bond futures, but yields are relatively low. It is expected that the volatility will increase, and caution is advised [5][6][7] Stocks - Stock Index Futures: On the previous trading day, stock index futures fluctuated slightly. Although tariffs disrupt the domestic economic recovery rhythm and global recession risks increase, domestic asset valuations are low, and policies have hedging space. It is still optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets, waiting for long - entry opportunities [8][9][10] Precious Metals - Gold and Silver: On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures prices declined. In Q1 2025, China's domestic gold ETF holdings increased. The complex global trade and financial environment and tariff disturbances are expected to drive up the gold price. It is still optimistic about the long - term value of gold, waiting for long - entry opportunities [11][12] Metals - Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil): On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated weakly. The downward trend of the real estate industry suppresses prices, but the peak demand season may provide short - term support. The valuation is low, and there are signs of technical support. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [13][14] - Iron Ore: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures pulled back slightly. The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in supply and inventory support prices. The valuation is relatively high. Investors can focus on long - entry opportunities at low levels [16] - Coking Coal and Coke: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to decline. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the transaction atmosphere has weakened. The shipment of coke has improved, but the possibility of price increases is reduced. There are signs of a technical bottom. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [18][19] - Ferroalloys: On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures declined. The supply of manganese ore may be disturbed, and the demand for ferroalloys is weak. The high inventory exerts pressure. With the arrival of the peak demand season for steel, the demand for ferroalloys is expected to pick up. Investors can consider relevant option opportunities [21][22] - Copper: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper rebounded after reaching the bottom. The market expects policies to stabilize the market and promote economic growth. The copper price is expected to be strong, and long - entry operations are recommended [55][56] - Tin: On the previous trading day, tin prices declined. The supply and demand fundamentals are affected by multiple factors, and the price is expected to oscillate. Risk control is required in the short term [57][58] - Nickel: On the previous trading day, nickel prices rose. The supply of ore is tightened, providing cost support, but the demand may weaken in the off - season. The price is affected by macro - pessimistic sentiment, and caution is advised in the short term [59] - Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon: On the previous trading day, the prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures declined. The supply - demand imbalance persists, and the prices are expected to be weak. Short - selling operations on rebounds can be considered [60][61] Energy - Crude Oil: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward. The geopolitical situation is complex, and the resistance of Brent crude at $70 is strong. It is recommended to wait and see [23][24][25] - Fuel Oil: On the previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil and oscillated higher. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be tight, but the inventory in Singapore has increased significantly. It is recommended to wait and see [26][27] Chemicals - Synthetic Rubber: On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose slightly. The supply pressure persists, the demand improvement is limited, and the cost is stable. It is expected to oscillate [28][29] - Natural Rubber: On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures declined. The global supply is expected to increase, and the demand is affected by tariffs. It is expected to be weak and oscillate [30][31][32] - PVC: On the previous trading day, PVC futures rose slightly. The supply pressure eases marginally, and the demand recovers weakly. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom [33][34][35] - Urea: On the previous trading day, urea futures rose. The agricultural demand will decline seasonally in May, and the supply pressure will increase. It is expected to be weak in the short term [36][37][38] - PX: On the previous trading day, PX futures rose. The PX load decreased due to maintenance, and the downstream demand improved. The short - term support from crude oil is limited. It is expected to oscillate with the cost [39] - PTA: On the previous trading day, PTA futures rose. The supply load increased, and the demand was affected by tariffs. The cost support was insufficient. It is expected to oscillate [40][41] - Ethylene Glycol: On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. The supply load increased, the inventory was high, and the demand was affected by tariffs. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom [42] - Short - Fiber: On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. The supply load decreased slightly, the demand was weak, and the cost support was insufficient. It is expected to oscillate with the cost [43][44] - Bottle Chips: On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures rose. The cost support improved, the supply load increased, and the demand recovered. It is expected to oscillate with the cost [45] - Soda Ash: On the previous trading day, soda ash futures declined. The supply is high, the new orders are average, and the downstream demand is weak. It is expected to be weak in the short term [46][47][48] - Glass: On the previous trading day, glass futures declined. The production line is at a low level, the inventory changes little, and the demand is affected by tariffs. The market sentiment is expected to be weak [49] - Caustic Soda: On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures declined. The production decreased slightly, the downstream demand was weak, and the price is expected to decline slightly in the short term [50][51] - Pulp: On the previous trading day, pulp futures declined. The inventory increased, the downstream start - up was mixed, and the market was light. It is expected to oscillate at a relatively low level [52] - Lithium Carbonate: On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures declined. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory increases. It is expected to be weak [53][54] Agricultural Products - Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal: On the previous trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal futures declined. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, the demand for soybean oil and soybean meal is expected to increase slightly. It is recommended to wait and see for soybean meal and consider call option opportunities for soybean oil [62][63] - Palm Oil: On the previous trading day, palm oil futures declined. The production is expected to increase, the inventory may rise, and the export has increased. It is recommended to wait and see [64][65][66] - Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil: The price of Canadian rapeseed fluctuated slightly. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed products. The inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed meal decreased, and the inventory of rapeseed oil increased. Investors can consider the opportunity to expand the spread between soybean and rapeseed products [67][68] - Cotton: On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures oscillated. The planting area in Xinjiang has increased, and the weather is a key factor. The textile and clothing export is affected by tariffs. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds in the long term [69][70][71] - Sugar: On the previous trading day, domestic sugar futures fluctuated. The sugar production in India is lower than expected, and Brazil is gradually starting to crush. The domestic industrial inventory is neutral, and the import volume is low. It is recommended to wait and see [73][74] - Apple: On the previous trading day, apple futures declined significantly. The inventory is low, the consumption is good, and the spot price is strong. It is recommended to go long on dips [75][76] - Pig: On the previous trading day, pig futures declined slightly. The supply is sufficient, the consumption is in the off - season, and the price is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to taking profits on short positions [77][78] - Egg: On the previous trading day, egg futures declined. The egg supply is expected to increase, the consumption is in the off - season, and the feed cost may rise in the long term. Attention should be paid to reverse - spread opportunities [79][80] - Corn and Corn Starch: On the previous trading day, corn and corn starch futures rose. The supply of corn is expected to be slightly less surplus, the demand is expected to increase, and the inventory is high. Corn starch follows the corn market. It is recommended to wait and see [81][82][83] - Log: On the previous trading day, log futures declined. The arrival of logs decreased, the inventory was relatively stable, and the market was light. There is no obvious driving force in the fundamentals [84][85]
西南期货早间评论-20250429
Xi Nan Qi Huo·2025-04-29 02:50