低硫油市场结构走强，但潜在压力仍存

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - period: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long the spread of FU2507 - 2509 at low prices (positive spread) [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil has strengthened, but potential pressures still exist. The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures rose 0.46% to 3026 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 1.94% to 3529 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil prices continue to fluctuate, with many short - term uncertainties and an unclear trend, providing limited guidance for downstream FU and LU prices [1] - For fuel oil fundamentals, the previous tightness in the spot market has eased, and refinery and bunker fuel demand face negative factors. However, with the approaching summer, the terminal demand of power plants in the Middle East and Egypt will increase seasonally. Due to the shortage of natural gas, Egypt, Iran, and Iraq are expected to use more high - sulfur fuel oil to replace natural gas, bringing additional consumption increments [1] - In April, there were significant signs of increased imports of high - sulfur fuel oil in Egypt and Saudi Arabia, and more consumption increments are expected in the next few months [1] - The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil shows marginal improvement, with spot premiums, monthly spreads, and crack spreads rebounding, and the supply of arbitrage cargoes from the Western region tightening marginally. However, the remaining production capacity is still relatively abundant, and the production of refineries in Kuwait and Nigeria has recently increased [1] - The trend of low - sulfur fuel oil demand being replaced has not reversed, and it may face further pressure after the entry into force of the Mediterranean ECA in May. If the tariff conflict continues, global trade demand faces a downward risk, which will be negative for fuel oil demand, and low - sulfur fuel oil will be more sensitive [1] Group 3: Summary of Figures - The report includes figures on Singapore high - sulfur 380 fuel oil spot price, Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil spot price, Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil swap near - month contract, Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil swap near - month contract, Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil near - month spread, Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil near - month spread, fuel oil FU futures main contract closing price, fuel oil FU futures index closing price, fuel oil FU futures near - month contract closing price, fuel oil FU near - month contract spread, fuel oil FU futures main contract trading volume and open interest, fuel oil FU futures total trading volume and open interest, low - sulfur fuel oil LU futures main contract closing price, low - sulfur fuel oil LU futures index closing price, low - sulfur fuel oil LU futures near - month contract price, low - sulfur fuel oil LU futures near - month spread, low - sulfur fuel oil LU futures main contract trading volume and open interest, and low - sulfur fuel oil LU futures total trading volume and open interest [3]