摩根士丹利：解答您关于关税、贸易及贸易紧张局势的疑问

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report addresses key investor questions regarding tariffs, trade, and trade tensions, focusing on high-frequency indicators and their implications for growth outlook [3][5][8] Current Status of Trade and Tariffs - High-frequency indicators show a significant decline in US-China trade activity, while broader trade activity is starting to recover after a sharp deceleration [5][9] - Tariffs on China have risen sharply, with effective rates increasing from 11% in January 2025 to 107% by April 2025 [36][40] - The overall effective tariff rate on US imports has increased by 23 percentage points year-to-date, reaching 25% [42][44] High-Frequency Indicators - Daily port calling data indicates that port callings in China have softened to 4.0% year-on-year from a mid-March peak of 10.6% [10][12] - The number of cargo-carrying container ships departing from China to the US has contracted by 33% year-on-year [13][14] - Scheduled blank sailings in the US have risen 14-fold compared to the previous month, indicating significant disruptions in shipping [11][19] Future Outlook - Talks between the US and China are expected to begin, potentially leading to a gradual reduction in tariff rates, but tariffs are likely to remain higher than January 2025 levels [46][48] - For Asia excluding China, reaching trade deals before the tariff pause expires is challenging, with some economies more likely to secure agreements than others [55] - Elevated uncertainty from tariffs is expected to weigh on capital expenditures and trade, leading to a potential synchronous slowdown in growth [56][58] Growth Implications - The report anticipates a sharp deceleration in growth for China, projecting 2Q25 growth below 4.5%, significantly weaker than 1Q25 [58] - Trade-exposed economies in Asia, such as Korea and Taiwan, are expected to experience a sharper deceleration in growth compared to less exposed economies like India and Australia [59][60]