Soochow Securities·2025-04-29 02:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for Qingdao Beer is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that Qingdao Beer has crossed the pressure point in Q1 2025, with expectations for volume and price to accelerate in the future [7] - The company reported a revenue of 10.446 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.91%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.710 billion yuan, up 7.08% year-on-year [7] - The report highlights that the sales volume in Q1 2025 increased by 3.53% to 2.261 million tons, indicating resilience and a positive outlook for the upcoming quarters [7] - The gross profit margin improved, with a net profit margin rising to 16.64%, reflecting better operational efficiency [7] - The report emphasizes that Qingdao Beer is a quality stock with both offensive and defensive characteristics, benefiting from restaurant recovery and management enhancements [7] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue projections for Qingdao Beer are as follows: 33.614 billion yuan in 2025, 34.783 billion yuan in 2026, and 35.909 billion yuan in 2027, with respective growth rates of 4.59%, 3.48%, and 3.24% [1][8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 4.845 billion yuan in 2025, 5.350 billion yuan in 2026, and 5.736 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 11.51%, 10.43%, and 7.21% respectively [1][8] - The report projects the earnings per share (EPS) to be 3.55 yuan in 2025, 3.92 yuan in 2026, and 4.20 yuan in 2027 [1][8] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 21.75 in 2025 to 18.38 in 2027, indicating a potentially attractive valuation [1][8]