招商期货金融期货早班车-20250429

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the stock index futures market, after the implementation of US reciprocal tariffs, stock index fluctuations have significantly increased. There is a possibility of short - term over - decline in the index. Attention should be paid to signs of tariff easing and structural opportunities in the stock market. If the RMB holds the key level, the index may stabilize. Currently, there are gaps above and below the index, and it is expected to move in a volatile manner in the short term. Since the valuation of IF is low, it is recommended to make long - term investments at low prices [2]. - For the treasury bond futures market, the short - term capital situation is neutral recently. With the implementation of the US reciprocal tariff executive order, global trade uncertainty has increased significantly. In the short term, the safe - haven property of treasury bonds is more prominent, but the price has reached a high level, so it is expected to move in a volatile manner. In the long run, the sequence of fiscal and monetary policies will determine the direction of long - term prices. If fiscal policies are introduced first and the domestic economy shows a further positive trend, the prices of long - term treasury bonds are expected to gradually decline, and the yield curve will become steeper [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Economic Data High - frequency data shows that the recent infrastructure construction boom has slightly increased [5]. (2) Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On April 28, the four major A - share stock indexes declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.2% to 3288.41 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.62% to 9855.2 points, the ChiNext Index fell 0.65% to 1934.46 points, and the STAR 50 Index fell 0.17% to 1002.83 points. Market trading volume was 1.0768 trillion yuan, a decrease of 60.2 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, public utilities (+0.39%) led the gains, while real estate (-3.66%) led the losses [2]. - The basis and basis annualized yields of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH are 148.06, 127.3, 51.02, and 23.23 points, and - 17.49%, - 15.79%, - 9.37%, and - 6.08% respectively. The three - year historical quantiles are 5%, 3%, 6%, and 16% respectively. The futures - spot price difference has been repaired but remains at a low level [2]. (3) Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On April 28, most treasury bond futures rose. The 2 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.01% to 102.32 points, the 5 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.06% to 105.92 points, the 10 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.03% to 108.84 points, and the 30 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.3% to 120.18 points [3]. - In the open - market operations, the central bank injected 279 billion yuan and withdrew 176 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 103 billion yuan [3]. - The short - term capital interest rate market has changed. For example, SHIBOR overnight is 1.60, DR001 is 1.59, SHIBOR one - week is 1.72, and DR007 is 1.75 [14].