华金期货国债期货市场周报-20250429

Report Title - "Treasury Bond Futures Market Weekly Report" [1] Report Information - Reported by Huajin Futures Research Institute on April 29, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Mao Weiwei, with qualification number F3051431/Z0013833 [21] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Last week, treasury bond futures slightly pulled back. The central bank net injected 86.4 billion yuan. The 10-year treasury bond yield slightly increased, and in the long term, it remains at a historical low. Technically, the short-term price of the T2506 contract is above the 40-day moving average. The treasury bond market price fluctuates at a high level, and the interest rate is still in a low range. In the medium to long term, the upside is limited, and it is advisable to buy on dips in the short term [3] Section Summaries I. Treasury Bond Futures Macro and Market Outlook - Macro and News: Domestically, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on policies for stable employment, economy, and high - quality development. The central bank deputy governor said that timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts would be made to maintain ample liquidity and introduce incremental policies. Internationally, the US Treasury Secretary said the US is negotiating customized agreements with 15 - 18 "important trading partners", with one likely to be with India [4] - Market Outlook: Last week, treasury bond futures slightly pulled back. The central bank net injected 86.4 billion yuan. The 10 - year treasury bond yield slightly increased and is at a historical low in the long term. Technically, the short - term price of the T2506 contract is above the 40 - day moving average. The market price fluctuates at a high level, and the interest rate is in a low range. In the medium to long term, the upside is limited, and short - term buying on dips is recommended [3] II. Treasury Bond Futures Market - Price Movement: Last week, treasury bond futures slightly pulled back. The TS2506, TF2506, T2506, and TL2506 contracts had weekly declines of 0.14%, 0.28%, 0.23%, and 0.02% respectively [5] III. Treasury Bond Yield Changes - Yield Movement: Last week, long - term interest rates slightly increased, and the yield spread narrowed [8] IV. Treasury Bond CTD Bonds and Basis - Arbitrage Opportunity: This week, the IRR of treasury bond futures is higher than the short - term financing rate, presenting an arbitrage opportunity [11] V. Treasury Bond Futures Spread and Basis - TF - T Spread: The spread between 5 - year and 10 - year treasury bond futures narrowed, and their basis remained stable [12] VI. Treasury Bond Term Structure - Term Structure Change: The latest treasury bond term structure flattened compared to April 21, and the yield decreased [18]