伊朗港口事件影响有限

Report Industry Investment Rating - The strategy is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The explosion at the Shahid Rajaee Port in Iran on April 26 had limited impact as the methanol shipping port Assalueh was operating normally and the port resumed cargo import and export on April 27 [2] - From the port perspective, downstream MTO plants had maintenance plans, the external market operating rate was high, and imports were increasing, but the inland market was strong, and the port was still destocking, with the inventory inflection point yet to be realized. The future port restocking cycle depends on inland supply and demand [2] - From the inland perspective, the peak of coal - based methanol maintenance has passed, but the increase in operating rate is slow. The traditional downstream operating rate maintains some resilience, and the future variable lies in its change. The production profit of coal - based methanol is still high [2] Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents various charts related to methanol basis, including methanol Taicang basis and the main contract, and basis between different regional spot and main futures [6][8][10] - It also shows the price differences between different methanol futures contracts, such as methanol 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 contracts [19][21] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Charts display the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, the profit of East China MTO (PP&EG type), and import price differences such as Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [24][30][29] III. Methanol Operating Rate, Inventory - Charts show the total port inventory of methanol, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated ones), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated ones) [33][35] IV. Regional Price Differences - The report provides charts on regional price differences, such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, Lunan - Taicang - 100, Guangdong - East China - 180, and East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 [37][42][45] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Charts present the production gross margins of traditional downstream products, including Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [49][52]