Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The short - term trend of soybean meal is downward. Considering the pre - holiday capital risk aversion, the continuous downward space is limited, and it will mainly show a weak consolidation before the holiday [1]. - Rapeseed meal is expected to decline in the short - term. After the holiday, attention can be paid to whether it can build a second bottom - hunting and stabilizing opportunity above 2570 yuan [1]. - Palm oil will experience a short - term oscillatory decline. Attention should be paid to Malaysian data and the risk of weakening, and also to the US biodiesel policy, crude oil prices, and the export situation of Malaysian palm oil in April [1]. - Cotton is expected to return to a weak rhythm in the short - term. The price center of the disk is expected to return to a weak operation after a small rebound, and attention should be paid to the adjustment of subsequent tariff policies [1]. - The jujube market is expected to maintain an oscillatory consolidation recently, and attention should be paid to the situation of the new production season [1]. - The pig market is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the opportunity to intervene in the H2 reverse spread [1]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - International: The impact of the Sino - US trade tariff increase event on the upside is limited. South American soybean production is basically determined, and the planting of US soybeans has started. The current planting progress and weather outlook are relatively smooth [1][3]. - Domestic: From April to June, the monthly average import is over 10 million tons. As of April 18, domestic port and oil - mill soybeans have been accumulating inventory for three consecutive weeks, while the soybean meal inventory is still in a state of destocking, and the spot supply of soybean meal is tight. As of April 25, the national port soybean inventory was 5.2028 million tons, and the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 4.5948 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 29.40%. The soybean meal inventory was 74,800 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 84.69%. The near - month contract remains strong, but the main contract is expected to run bearishly in the short - term. Before the holiday, be cautious about going long [1][2][3]. - Price Data: The main contract of soybean meal futures closed at 2985 yuan/ton, down 1.52% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3688 yuan/ton, down 4.46% [2]. Rapeseed Meal - Inventory: As of April 25, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 255,000 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 9700 tons, both showing a decrease compared to the previous week. The domestic rapeseed meal inventory is much higher than that of the past two years, and the new - season rapeseed will be harvested and listed in May [7]. - Price Influence Factors: The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has recently expanded to over 900 yuan/ton, reducing the substitutability of rapeseed meal. However, the sharp rise in the spot price of soybean meal due to short - term supply shortages has driven up the price of rapeseed meal. In addition, the continuous rise of Canadian rapeseed in the past two days and strong export demand have supported the domestic rapeseed meal price. Before the holiday, be cautious about going long due to the approaching new - season rapeseed harvest [7]. - Price Data: The main contract of rapeseed meal futures closed at 2641 yuan/ton, down 1.60% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2657.37 yuan/ton, down 2.09% [4]. Palm Oil - Inventory and Production: As of April 18, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 384,400 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 22.62%. From April 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 19.88% compared to the same period last month. From April 1 - 25, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil products increased to varying degrees [8][9]. - Market Outlook: The price of palm oil is expected to decline in the short - term. The near - month contract may be strongly supported due to the high basis and limited current imports. Attention should be paid to the US biodiesel policy, crude oil prices, and the export situation of Malaysian palm oil in April [1][8][9]. - Price Data: The main contract of palm oil futures closed at 8174 yuan/ton, down 2.41% from the previous day. The national average price was 8960 yuan/ton, down 1.35% [8]. Cotton - International: As of the week of April 20, the US cotton planting rate was 11%. The US main cotton - producing areas are expected to receive rainfall this weekend to improve soil moisture. In Brazil, the cumulative rainfall in Mato Grosso has decreased recently, and the soil moisture in the cotton - growing areas has slightly deteriorated [11]. - Domestic: The intended planting area of cotton in China in 2025 is 43.763 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. The production is conservatively estimated to be around 7 million tons. The cotton sowing in Xinjiang is gradually coming to an end, and the overall climate is favorable for growth. The demand is entering the seasonal off - season, and textile enterprises are replenishing inventory on a just - in - time basis. In March 2025, the domestic retail of clothing and textiles was still resilient, and the foreign trade export data improved. The price center of the disk is expected to return to a weak operation after a small rebound [12][13]. - Price Data: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton, CF2509, closed at 12950 yuan/ton, down 0.46%. The domestic spot average price was 14261 yuan/ton, up 0.14% [10][11]. Jujube - Production Area: In some southern Xinjiang jujube - producing areas, the jujube trees have germinated, and the current growth is good. The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week was 10,505 tons, a slight decrease from last week. The market trading atmosphere is light, and the price is stable. As the temperature rises, the demand for dried fruits will weaken [14][15]. - Market Outlook: The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern of the jujube market has not improved significantly, and it is expected to maintain an oscillatory consolidation recently [15]. - Price Data: The main contract of jujube, CJ2509, closed at 9070 yuan/ton, down 0.22% [14][15]. Pig - Supply: The high - level decline in the number of piglets born at the end of 2024 means that the supply pressure from April to June will have limited growth. After the holiday, there is still a certain amount of second - fattening waiting to enter the market. The increase in the number of piglets from January to February 2025 indicates that the supply pressure in the third quarter will remain relatively high. In the long term, the increase in the number of breeding sows in February deepens the expectation of overall supply pressure in the second half of 2025. The inventory is continuously increasing slightly, and the average slaughter weight and frozen - product storage rate are continuously rising [16][17]. - Demand: The demand has increased slightly after the holiday, but the relative level is still low. The support from second - fattening has slowed down, but the improvement in seasonal demand still needs attention [17]. - Market Outlook: The market fundamentals have not significantly improved, and the oversupply pressure is expected to dominate the market trend in the second half of 2025. The price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the opportunity to intervene in the H2 reverse spread [18]. - Price Data: The main contract of live pigs, Lh2509, closed at 14130 yuan/ton, down 0.14%. The national average spot price of live pigs was 14960 yuan/ton, down 0.07% [16].
豆粕日报：短期下跌-20250429
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-04-29 03:41