光大期货金融期货日报-20250429

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market had a slight correction on April 29, 2025, with the Wind All A closing down 0.61% and a trading volume of 1.08 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite 50 Index rose 0.09%, while the CSI 1000, CSI 500, and SSE 300 Indices fell 1.05%, 0.51%, and 0.14% respectively. The market's focus shifted from overseas to domestic demand. The Politburo meeting in April did not announce significantly unexpected policies, still emphasizing fiscal measures to boost domestic demand. In Q1 2025, China's general public budget revenue decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, while expenditure increased by 4.2%. The issuance progress of general treasury bonds reached 30%, significantly ahead of schedule. The cumulative year-on-year revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size in March was 3.4%, consistent with China's Q1 GDP (5.4%) and PPI (-2.5% year-on-year). It's necessary to verify the recovery of Q1 economic data by comparing the year-on-year revenue growth of A-share listed companies with these figures. Overseas, the US tariff policy aims to reshape the global trade pattern through point-to-point negotiations, which may affect China's exports to the EU, Japan, and South Korea and have a long-term impact on the A-share market. China's economic development will focus more on the domestic cycle, making the central government's consumption promotion policy more reasonable. Consumption and dividend themes may be dominant for a long time this year, and technology themes related to domestic substitution and high capital expenditure can be monitored [1]. - For treasury bond futures, on April 29, 2025, the 30-year, 10-year, and 2-year main contracts rose 0.30%, 0.03%, and 0.01% respectively, while the 5-year main contract fell 0.06%. The central bank conducted 279 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations with a stable interest rate of 1.5%, resulting in a net injection of 103 billion yuan. In April, the bond market first rose and then fell. At the beginning of the month, the market's risk aversion sentiment increased due to tariff impacts, causing the yields of treasury bonds of all maturities to decline by about 15 basis points. After the risk aversion sentiment subsided, the bond market entered a sideways consolidation phase. In the short term, the market has fully priced in positive factors, and the economic and financial data have generally exceeded market expectations, so there is little need for an immediate interest rate cut. Without an interest rate cut, the bond market lacks the impetus to continue rising and will likely maintain a sideways volatile trend [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Viewpoints Stock Index Futures - On April 29, 2025, the A-share market had a slight correction. The Shanghai Composite 50 Index rose 0.09%, while the CSI 1000, CSI 500, and SSE 300 Indices fell 1.05%, 0.51%, and 0.14% respectively. The banking and infrastructure sectors strengthened, while the real estate, automobile, and consumer sectors weakened. The market's focus shifted from overseas to domestic demand. The Politburo meeting in April did not announce significantly unexpected policies, still emphasizing fiscal measures to boost domestic demand. In Q1 2025, China's general public budget revenue decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, while expenditure increased by 4.2%. The issuance progress of general treasury bonds reached 30%, significantly ahead of schedule. The cumulative year-on-year revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size in March was 3.4%, consistent with China's Q1 GDP (5.4%) and PPI (-2.5% year-on-year). It's necessary to verify the recovery of Q1 economic data by comparing the year-on-year revenue growth of A-share listed companies with these figures. Overseas, the US tariff policy aims to reshape the global trade pattern through point-to-point negotiations, which may affect China's exports to the EU, Japan, and South Korea and have a long-term impact on the A-share market. China's economic development will focus more on the domestic cycle, making the central government's consumption promotion policy more reasonable. Consumption and dividend themes may be dominant for a long time this year, and technology themes related to domestic substitution and high capital expenditure can be monitored. The overall view on the stock index futures market is that it will remain volatile [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - On April 29, 2025, the 30-year, 10-year, and 2-year main contracts of treasury bond futures rose 0.30%, 0.03%, and 0.01% respectively, while the 5-year main contract fell 0.06%. The central bank conducted 279 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations with a stable interest rate of 1.5%, resulting in a net injection of 103 billion yuan. In the interbank market, the DR001 rate decreased by 1.96 basis points to 1.5888%, and the DR007 rate increased by 3.59 basis points to 1.7489%. In the exchange repurchase market, the GC001 rate increased by 21.50 basis points to 1.8950%, and the GC007 rate increased by 7 basis points to 1.8450%. In April, the bond market first rose and then fell. At the beginning of the month, the market's risk aversion sentiment increased due to tariff impacts, causing the yields of treasury bonds of all maturities to decline by about 15 basis points. After the risk aversion sentiment subsided, the bond market entered a sideways consolidation phase. In the short term, the market has fully priced in positive factors, and the economic and financial data have generally exceeded market expectations, so there is little need for an immediate interest rate cut. Without an interest rate cut, the bond market lacks the impetus to continue rising and will likely maintain a sideways volatile trend [3]. Daily Price Changes - For stock index futures, on April 29, 2025, compared with April 25, 2025, the IH remained unchanged, the IF fell 0.23%, the IC fell 0.50%, and the IM fell 1.00%. For stock indices, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index rose 0.09%, the SSE 300 Index fell 0.14%, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.51%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 1.05%. For treasury bond futures, the TS rose 0.04%, the TF fell 0.02%, the T rose 0.06%, and the TL rose 0.35%. For treasury bond yields, the 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year yields decreased by 0.01, 0.6, 0.9, and 1 basis points respectively [4]. Market News - On April 28, 2025, at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office, Zhao Chenxin, the deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, stated that China will introduce a series of measures to stabilize employment, the economy, and promote high-quality development. These measures cover five aspects: supporting employment, stabilizing foreign trade, promoting consumption, expanding effective investment, and creating a stable development environment. The policies are targeted and operable, aiming to enhance the sense of gain of enterprises and the public, and will be introduced one by one as they mature [5]. Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report provides charts showing the trends of the IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as their respective basis trends, to help analyze the performance of stock index futures [7][8][9][10][11]. Treasury Bond Futures - The report presents charts of the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond yields, basis, inter - delivery spreads, cross - variety spreads, and funding rates to assist in the analysis of the treasury bond futures market [14][16][18][19]. Exchange Rates - The report includes charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar and the euro against the Chinese yuan, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between major currencies to analyze the exchange rate market [23][24][25][27][28]