Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Trump's attitude towards China's tariffs has eased, but the issue remains unresolved. Direct textile and clothing orders to the US are still on hold, and the expectation of polyester production cuts suppresses market sentiment. PX and PTA maintain low valuations and inventory reduction, but the rebound is limited due to weak gasoline and demand expectations. The 5 - 9 month spread has strengthened recently, and attention should be paid to crude oil and macro - changes [1] - For short - fiber, the US tariff situation is improving, market sentiment is stable, but the willingness to chase high prices is insufficient. Some yarn mills plan to have holidays during the May Day period, and the raw material stocking intention is average, with the market in a volatile consolidation [1] - For PR, the tariff policy has little impact on bottle - chip demand. The bottle - chip load has returned to a high level, and the processing margin of bottle - chip factories is limited. The market price is expected to follow the raw material cost [1] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Relevant figures include TA main contract & basis & inter - period spread trend, PX main contract trend & basis & inter - period spread, PTA East China spot basis, and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [10][11][13] Upstream Profit and Spread - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][21] International Spread and Import - Export Profit - Include toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [26][28] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Show China PTA load, South Korea PTA load, Taiwan PTA load, China PX load, and Asian PX load [29][32][33] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Comprise PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse receipts inventory, PX warehouse receipts inventory, and PF warehouse receipts inventory [37][40][41] Downstream Polyester Load - Include filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom, texturing, and dyeing start - up rates [48][50][60] PF Detailed Data - Include polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [70][72][83] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Include polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip spread, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [91][93][101] Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term market sentiment has improved, and PX/PTA/PF/PR are stable [5] - Cross - variety: None [5] - Cross - period: None [5]
近端供应减少,PTA基差走强
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-04-29 04:05